Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (II)d By Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka

By Sampson Onwuka Iroabuchi

Aganga Olusegun references about Nigerian economy which we have cited, which does not exclude Nigerian economy needing ‘resource allocation’, fans flames of a man wonder with little more than his training at Goldman Sachs. We are therefore expected to be weary of what the man thinks of his role and position. We are expected to say that man parries himself as an advisory to the Fragile Union with no real long term strategy for the country’s domestic market. We are expected to say that his current tilt obliges the interest of Goldman Sachs so to speak. Therefore his commentary is probably a ‘put up’ by his compeers and perhaps indirectly so given the training at Goldman Sachs. He was called by many Nigerians an economic czar and a progressive which may all be the case, but from what he had said so far he is probable a lingering novice at the edge of the world financing or an economic Hit man from the stables of Goldman Sachs. I am certain that unless adaptability is part of Aganga’s hidden ingredient, he is not that credible and attention on the probability of disappointing Nigerians is very possible.

I sound out my warning on the vise of his lapses evident in his public statement, lapses which we can be summarized as a first level money market econometrics, lapses which he should amend and lapses not there to tear him down. I sound out this warning since experience with ‘epic of financial’ in 2008, where many of us were not loud enough in getting the attention of Nigerians and of CBN chair in matters arising from the Nigerian Stock market, especially in the year leading to the crash of financial economy. Nigerian domestic markets under the heavy weight condition of a Goldman Sachs will remain crippled long term. In a sense, drawing too close to a Goldman Sachs outfit is not a very easy engagement without serious network solution at home. If this concern is no avail, we should be worthy of the point that Nigerian Interest rate differential with respect to Europe will even at this point remain a problem for most businesses.



If capital appreciation of Nigerian unit of exchange is only inverse of a ‘super currency’ such as the dollars, ‘you suckers’ should disabuse your mind about any lingering hint of attracting or retaining foreign investors. Capital appreciation to the benefit of this host nation is not possible without interest rate differential pegged to the major currencies. For the real war of International Banks is to be measured by the ‘decision function’ of existing financial institution and from many market statistics most elemental of which is the interest rate. Capital appreciation if perforce through policies like Sanusi’s recent engagement will lead to a Robert Shilling’s ‘Irrational exuberance’ of Nigerian financial. In one sweep of market language, Nigerian economy will only point to an ‘extreme’ in the runway of Global macro. Such improbability of an ‘extreme’ may prove Nigeria a ‘maximum risk’ environment and as such unattractive to investors comfortable with long term investment. But spin off of asset attract International Vultures, spin off assets attract short sellers in the guise of International financiers, all of whom may short list themselves as lenders in the open Long term window but gradually permitting a short term borrowing that will cripple the long term view of the country or the long term borrowers. That’s to say that IMF and World Bank are baiting on the collapse on Nigerian economy in the years that the debt will last.



Credit facilities in Nigeria is very weak and almost nonexistent. Local Security Underwriters will therefore be forced in the ‘Long Term’ to confront the issue of super currency which Aganga now heads. In markets if not in financing, ‘Actual Capacitor’ for long term financing of major projects in any economy, for instance in Nigeria, should ram on the existing Stock markets and market direction, and when this is not the case, it gives away the indirect fact that ‘foreign capacitors’ and rate are currently overweight in such economy like Nigeria. As rate count on rate, we view the whole appointment and decoration from the ‘negative’ probability stand point, that Aganga Olusegun may be a Nigerian, and may be the Financial Minister and a good fellow but ultimately, he is a ‘negative externality’ to Nigerian economy. On this inability to spot and forward on Nigerian Naira, Market Nigeria will continuously ‘defy all principles of economics’.