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Monday, April 20, 2015

Robert Shilling and The Detroit question II



 http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20130809&t=2&i=758655754&w=644&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&r=CBRE9781A0C00


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By

Sampson I.M Onwuka

When as Robert Shilling argued that the total resources based economy such as Real Estate is yielding more money usual, that the common sense approach to the cooling off the heat from the real estate profit was trying to distribute the associated risk. But for fact that irrational exuberance exhibited by the markets makes it impossible for the rest of to see the danger signs ahead, it is assumed that we continue to bait on the progress of the economy, continue to rely on profits from real estate even when there are no reasons to believe it, to believe that the prosperity especially when the building is over-priced, till losses set in and there is the bursting of what seem a bubble. 

The 2008 Phoenix was a classic example, that the buildings continued to pile up and prices rose in spite of what the market numbers are saying, and in spite of what the indexes (debt to earn) were saying, the market kept rising because everyone was money till there was a gap due to high cost of living and Phoenix and Los Angeles priced themselves out of the manufacturing businesses, the businesses gradually folded and relocated – most across the border where people paid 100 pesos a day and senior officers of these companies paid 150 pesos a day usually spent on food – and with these moves came the Jos losses in Phoenix and Los Angeles, then the credit default on the houses and then a collapse of a once burgeoning industry.  We are likely to maintain weaken the market rate. One of the ways you can stem the anemia in any market it to remove the boundary and lower tariffs. 

While there are interest groups that mitigate this profit, it is through a marriage of convenience between several nations taking interest in the United States or between its major Satellite states exercising and executing similar interest rates, through permitting the exchange rate at a scalable rate based on an equal and common consumptive item such as the Crude oil, or through other means that could levitate on the so called Cheap labor enjoyed by a seemingly poor nation to the rich. 

The Credit base measure between a Mexico, a Canada, and a United States, redeems the claim that these countries or in this direct measure, Mexico has cheaper labor than U.S. No they don’t. It seems that we can obtain a cheaper labor from Mexico or a less triumphalist second-third tier based market given the exchange rate. 

The main error is that the exchange rate is forced to depart the money terms involved, that it seems only the behavior of advanced psychology of money to predicate that labor and currency is to the least possible and to the least possible in numbers to obtain the required measure of the price pursued. 

The reasons why there is an influx of population from around the world to United States is not because of fancy restaurants and chickens, etc, it is because the labor is cheap and not the other way round. To generate money in say Russia using basic earnings routes in US will leave you perpetually poor – and worse off over a long period of time. Unless perhaps in Moscow which is the thumb in much of a third world Russia and have no shame with that. 

In Mexico, there is little life left for those who attempt the menial jobs in US that can sustain a family, even by comparison that you combine two jobs in Mexico and in China to prod, you are likely to struggle for much of it under the same jobs performed in the United States. In New York as they say, anything you do to obtain money – (others say decent thing you do) is good business. 


You can literally whip ass in New York and still make a comfortable living. To outsiders, washing toilet is bad business and not fitting for a man or woman with bachelors, but in US, you can raise your family washing toilet and bathrooms. This is the meaning of cheap labor that it resolves around the thing we may do for a living within cracking under it. 

Most Americans may be looking to do more compelling jobs and general leave the dead end jobs to others, but the beauty of all, is that an exchange rate (the market) corners the advantage of cheap return in one market in total different circumstances. 

The beauty of comparative advantage is that an equal measure of wealth from cheap labor is a function of price and price should generally reflect the market and the strength of your economy. It is now how expensive a building is that makes it good.  The issue of common will reveal how less attractive Mexico market will look when the currency is closer to base 1.

It is not how much you pay for an apartment that you rich. It is a product of the prevailing market conditions and barter between the two of you, but on the whole, when prices shoot ahead of the rate of local return within a sovereign demand and supply such as Austin with little support from elsewhere, your market actually sucks and you are doing badly. 

Case in point, in New York under Bloomberg, there was an abnormal increase in prices of building, which is not unlike New York but this case was different. The problem was that the City’s investment goals which included deliberately building model houses at deliberate cheap and ridiculous prices, forced the spike of houses to check its income tax prairie.   

The New Mayor planned from day one to execute 200 thousand new apartment with model statutes at a pre-priced rate and promised to recover the 300 thousand other apartment in the City, forced the prices to freeze and to some extent head downwards. Nothing has changed, what has happened Real estates controlled by a few companies and banks was delivered as an engine for immediate wealth acquisition to wealth from those comfortable with long term investment. 

These fixed income earners are not easily likely to lose their priced investment, to a point that the City was determined to use lottery to auction the building once completed. Such bids may seem unease but then there are more than one expect of the market which must be played out, one the Wall Street that believes that all prices must go up and now, and the Main Street that relapse to Bond market and random walk, for if the bond market on a four tie is not in the money due to high demands from the propagation of profit from housing, the Government may not be sufficient enough to redeem its bond. 

The market will be shooting above the crashing in other telling index, to a point that the institution that constitute 80% of the market will perpetually milk the small investment from the Americans who move their resources from savings to mutual funds or other resource based IRA account.        



 II


For sure, debt is debt and there are lots of them in any society that is based on Manufacturing, it is the very psychology of the Industrial Society; it’s very sickness.  But the lack of placement of interest and direction of resources for the City of Detroit and its Welfare…means that the City needs to borrow more money going forward. It needs to transform itself but going forward, it has incur the same problems since growth will attract more Americans and on. 

It may have to accommodate its importance along the lines of a City Reserve System which need to demarcate itself from Michigan if all possible (?).         


Cities may arrive this measure of distributed development by avoiding pitfalls which the City of Chicago was opulent in the 1900-1920’s and the City of New York from the turn of the 1800 where 5th Avenue was one parallel long and dual dusty roads. The Major development in New York came with the Gilded Age but in keeping to the future market of their present condition, they reverted to City level investment with a view of sponsoring a rate of return commensurate to local demand. 

If the trick of rate of return and budget is the local market, it is a City’s opulence to International market that guarantees its staying power which beggars on Austin to promote its definition by charting the Index of products and companies based and chartered through the NAFTA agreement, including compliance of Bank denomination such NADBANK and lateral IBC, adding a small contingency of new created or older existing Banks with ALADI, CARICOME and perhaps MERCOSUR opulence. 

Clearly stated, the role of US oil and investment options through established Intellectual Properties and Oil dependent States is what defines Houston. But to the extent that an index is a public property and incorporates material cases of signatories pushing the gutter-barrier of clearly defined amount may encourage more cooperate business resonance between a Bogota, Mexico City, and the central states within the older and more familiar franchise. 

Majority of these companies acting in these far reaching South and North American States are placed through Banks in New York, given them international exposure. But there are other ways of defining a market which we cannot teach, for instance the short gap between NAFTA and the including proviso of a total North Atlantic Coalition means political future of more than stated in the 15 year NAFTA, leads to options of GATT, guarantees some chairs at NYC given the penetration of U.S Banks and Insurance companies, and provides the listed companies reasons to form estimates of the pricing – either Debt to earn ratio or the promise of future delivery within the lines of the CURB or a CBOE. 

What ended the problems of the Chicago was the stability that accompanied its CBOE and its overnight lending. In the opulence of NAFTA that pursues a future, it is only possible if profit or gains does not marginalize on American businesses in California and in Texas, which from spike in housing essentially force these major power houses out of the manufacturing equation. 

It seems that Texas with over 2 trillion reverse net gains is higher pedestal than Mexico and that California is just higher. It must nonetheless be mentioned that these gains are removed in dollar terms which is the operational single currency of the United States. It is not easy to explicate that Mexico on a whole may be doing better than either State but in so far as the economic future of both Mexico and the United States, there is exception to accountability which the Index can provision and when the questions of overnight lending may prove to perpetuate long term the varying no border rules for businesses taking advantage of Cheap labor. 

If this gap is tamed, we experience long term a comparison between Texas, New Mexico, California and Mexico, whereas these States are integral part of the business interest of the Northern counterparts does not follow that these are the same in any class of business respect. To the point that the whole sale business successes enjoyed by Mexico in the last returning 15 years or at least since the inception of NAFTA, is largely due to the collapse of California and some other States struggling to survive that Texas proved an exception to differ, yet Mexico was all the more the reasons. 

Lending a pair of interpretive discourses from the problems encountered in the North and in many parts of United States up to 2008 and beginning with the coming of the EU in 1999 and the launching of Archipelago in 2003, it seems that the North experienced heavy emphasis on buildings due to the cornered attention from Europe and littoral of monetary emphasis which the bipedal money function of the Dollars to the Euro obtained, leading to places to stash the paper currency. 

It is financial to court the developments that come with industrial boom, especially real estate which is only one aspect of the economy – that when we notice more emphasis on houses, there is suggesting that money is flowing from elsewhere without correlation to local returns (danger mark), that there is nothing really going in that economy or within the sovereign demand and supply – (the consideration), that investors may seem comfortable with long term investment in such environment but may also be looking at an environment that is shaky on the plausibility of wealth from savings to mutual funds where institutional trading as a hedge for future take a misdiagnosed direction. 

The Catch 22 here is that the shift from all investment consideration to housing is not exactly a sign on prosperity and progress, it is a faint indication of an economy that was running on One Engine, for instance Austin, Texas.   

 
There is growth and maintenance and from taxes, that a Capitol City may derive from, but Capitol Cities without growth in general State is a few step backwards. For all argument, the rest of the world is not waiting for U.S cities to move green, they are looking to replace the First World and are honestly looking to hear, ‘we’ve done what we can’. 

 Austin is well positioned however to chart a different future as an example to all leading Cities in the country and in the world. It is a City that is surrounded by the fortune of natural resources and has successfully wrestled privateers from allocation that is outside their tiers. But this is only possible using Federal Charter and there are other State Capitol that has done similar deeds for its region and it’s State. As a region and under the protectorate cloak of Texas, the capital City is a regional force but for all intent, Dallas ranks higher, Dallas is a commissioned Federal Reserve and the Labor Commission administering the NADBANK is based in San Antonio and not in Austin.

 But this obvious disadvantage is the coming reason why a North Atlantic Charter has meaning in the region through Texas and from all informed class of respect, Austin as a leading candidate. It is past due to surmise that capital cities are not usually business cities, but a capitol city that is approaching a million and the luxury expansion it is a Federal contender for Indexes since it is independent of pressure. 

Anyone familiar with San Antonio and Austin will suggest that San Antonio on the surface is broken and less compellingly than Austin, but from all equal measures of the Market, San Antonio is a stronger and perhaps richer economy. Here’s why? The future estimate of any useful investment option is based on how well and easy it can transform the lives of new companies from small based start-up to at least recognizable Small Scale business by American Standard, and how well, these small businesses move to Mid-Size companies and the duration for its maturation as an American Conglomerates. 

The Second to size the weight of a market with future investment grade is how well its older companies are surviving, that as much the Debt is a two-face measure of Companies bottom line, it is returns on the investment by these Super Class companies that gives a fresh measure of the staying power of the existing economic base. 

The third is perhaps the most powerful – which is the extent to which individual companies and market based assurance can be obtained when a breach is reached. In New York for instance all monies owed as subject to scrutiny but when proved as judicially owed and considered money that must be remitted to the individuals in spite of it all, unless there is the so-called acts of God, which in New York persuade for the payment until the last penny. 

The same plays out in Switzerland that all monies owed – including from all referable and non-disclosed sources are beyond the confiscation of any State and any group in Switzerland, and New York if not Chicago pursue the same policies. Should a State – for instance Austin with little but expanding Public Storage (Treasury) can perpetuate this holding, it levitates on the quality of the market and measures the weight of international pressures such as IMF and Basel I-III against established local foundations. Based on the first two, it is common sense to affirm that San Antonio is a higher economic climate than Austin, that building presently underway in San Antonio is not really a blessing but a cause. 

There is hardly part of Texas where small business more support than San Antonio, majority of these companies arrived vivendi the South America, may not fully known given the short falls of Ship industries and business but may be due maturity in the lending 15-20 years – a healthy investment measure given the longevity and comfort of Real Estate investment. There are more houses are much cheaper rate meaning of high value than Austin, but unlike Austin, U.S laws are not well protected and the progress of the business are therefore secondary. 

In this guise, a consensus of what really determines a business vitae for indexing, for these named association performing in the States through the North American and South America by the vetoes of NAFTA and associate are products of the definition which Austin may offer. Austin as Capitol City must generate its own investment returns leading to the comparative advantage to other parts of world, where for instance the dying façade of the Monroe Doctrine may have lived its better days on a proven plateau far from the ‘Satanic mills’ of Nogales with over 400 thousand arrivals from 40 thousand in 1995 where laws are still not at ease.
     
Phoenix Arizona suffer from price escalation, so also Los Angeles, so also Austin, may be fated to other problems of North Atlantic market and NAFTA, may have started with the ingenious tectonic shift from the Agro-basic economies of California triumphant on mainly the resource based industries, was meant to tether on the verge of success and was among the hardest hit during the 2008 financial melt-down, which I once described as a kamikaze. 

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