A Reaction to Tunde Fagbenle on His view on Sanusi Lamido (V) by Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka

By

Sampson Onwuka Iroabuchi

First Bank had begun to falter in terms of organizational dynamics in around 2006. And that led to the exit of the top chiefs of the banks in matter of years. The man who was voted in January of 2009 from the glossary of risk managers and analyst to head First Bank was Lamido Sanusi. Lamido Sanusi is credited with toning down the rhetoric at First Bank and he is credited to have pushed the agenda of reform. But it is also said that more than anyone, he had problems of corporation with members outside his risk group.

It is wrong to enable the rest of us to judge Mr. Sanusi from the standpoint of these intervening years as risk manager of his former employer, before becoming the head of First bank from around the early months of 2009. It is wrong to cast enough aspersions on Sanusi from his performance and performances at First Bank in those declining years since the problem was worldwide. For that, we move to understand Sanusi from his role as a banker and his role as a CBN Chair. In many ways, the thematic difference between Sanusi the banker and risk manager and Sanusi the CBN Chair is to be understood if we are likely to form the right estimate of the man in question.

First it can be noted that Sanusi’s action at First Bank is mainly nominal given the outcome of the challenges the bank was facing in terms of risk management. First Bank as at April 2008 was already shrouded in complacency, already a lilac within the hue of commercial banking and already showing signs of decay from many years of bad management. First Bank was for many years the only bank that held its ground against many buffeting of Nigerian economic society. The problem of being so pivotal in any economy is that you are as the banker become, the pivotal litmus paper for testing and guaging the range of motion in your local economy. In one sense, you are likely to bear the loses of whatever happens to your local economy and it noting lifespan.

The issue of life-span of risk and portfolio management also applies, for it seems that when a Plateau is achieved in any money market graph without original input, the only way forward was essentially downwards. In terms of precaution the case is salvage but in terms of risk, we might began to suspect the inevitable when the market is seriously kinetic, in perpectual motion. In many ways, both graphs offer signals for hedge and defense, perhaps a haircut. But most banks who naturally get a haircut from many years of active success, do bounce back from fo rms of insolvency. So Plateau is dependency driven on meet of any event in the economy

A Reaction to Tunde Fagbenle on His view on Sanusi Lamido (IV) by Iroabuchi Onwuka

By
Sampson Irobuchi Onwuka

At the helm of First Bank, one of the biggest banks in Nigeria and one of the oldest during the insufferable months of failure was Lamido Sanusi. He was already complaining of various acts of disguise at CBN, an allegation that was not necessarily backed up.

Sanusi Lamido was until this appointment, the risk manager at First Bank. He was one of the leading risk champions of Naira choreography at First Bank. In my view, he was chattered as manager to essentially guesstimate on the probabilities of debt recovery. His natural leniency was real estate and housing, his ‘mien’ was metered for asset backed cooperation. For me, this is where he is to be understood from the gold leaf and leaflet of the commercial lending rights of his last bank and from his ruminative actions to upend and to install varying piecemeal of risky resource allocation. To dwarf the giants at the big banks would been taken nothing short of miracle, which would not have been the case, but initiating a stock buy program and exit clause or derived alternative to stock overload would have sent the right argument. By limiting the expectation and outlook year on year, he would have enabled a soft landing of the bank from its public accountability of loans to discouraging injection of capital given the inflation as at 2006.

His personal elation towards privileged banking and banking authorities seem to have misspelled the man as a conservative. But Sanusi in redaction is anything but conservative. He authorized 400 billion Naira bail of banks, 200 less than what Soludo asked for and eventually got what he wanted. He is noted for his combative style but it is a style that paints with evidence a picture of the other as lacking in discipline and as such liable to sense interest. Sanusi has an already made answer to the problems facing the country’s banking which made a lightning rod for criticism.

But such reservation of trust of the other - by common degree ductile, not necessarily panacea - forces many of us to accept that a shift of what was considered traditional (?) may have been a motivation and more than that, his motivation is rooted elsewhere. But we can also say that such loftily is noted for certain individuals that are shiv for privilege category and not of it, or whatever that is supposed to mean.

A Reaction to Tunde Fagbenle on His view on Sanusi Lamido (III) by Iroabuchi Onwuka

By
Iroabuchi Onwuka



These Lebanese and others also played a pivotal hand in Investment Banks in Nigeria though private placement in the Nigerian stock market, but their real strength was the commercial where they supervised the inflationary curve price of building and real estate. There were others, especially from the far side of country and from the North. But the success of the older Nigerian banks was a product of military era, an era that fed on to many Investment banks, many of them entirely reliant on Nigerian federal grants and contract with few scattered businesses. When the military disappeared, these banks in their many numbers also disappeared. There was also the issue of insolvency, mainly comatose by non performing debt which accumulated in dues by inflationary pressure.

The main thing is that nothing was working aside the business of small administrations, and only a certain investment type could have supported these Investment banks. They rose so quickly and fail just as fast, with people losing much of their money. The commercial banks such as First Banks and other older Banks held out the hopes of other businesses and served as protections for buffer tycoons roving in and out of federal account. In those years of the 90’s Nigerian banking society began to evolve into a different dragon. As much Banks rose and failed, there was a newer group of Nigerians, but this time with an the edge of securities placement, with insurance which ones the home make of bigger banks, with newer avenues for merchant banking, with credit amortization and association, with the degrees of leases not unlike the commercial banks and where offering credit advisory and futures trading in all respect of investment management.

These new banks acquired the rent prolepsis of micro financing and experimented with credit technology available in the US. It was these groups that began to chart the contours of Nigerian business, and began to underwrite for small business almost as the big guys. But their small unit in several outfits helped these Investment banks to aggregate overtime gainer from Market Nigeria, though largely commercial but experimenting with quickly experimenting with size and the forms of businesses involving everyday bank in Nigeria. The case of banks rising and falling and the case of people doing business through foreign exchange and parallel market made it easier for alternative to exist. It also made it easier for smaller banks to also fail. Commercial banks were digging too deep into the country and they had little competition. Commercial banks became the mother laden of many areas of Nigerian economy as smaller ones failed.

The advert of Obasanjo as President did not change the status quo, in fact he even deepened the vast resources of these bigger banks in Nigeria, who by market estimate where several in number.

Obasanjo’s privatization scheme enabled some survival of these smaller banks, but the rise of National debt to 30 billion and clear absence of sovereign wealth and zero foreign reserve led to the appointment of Prof Charlse Soludo. When he arrived at the office as CBN Chair, it was clear to the business world that business of Nigerian banking and the stock market would likely change. His idea of bringing several small banks together was to ensure they were reasonably fitted to compete and that there were too big to fail. What the effort however did was break the power of the old dominating banks and many of collision began to offer just as much credibility as the older ones. This began a certain kind of race, not unlike Lehman and company in US and in Europe, but a race that almost naturally spike up price, where bankers went out of their way to look for customers even it mean treading on deposits that they were too thin. The bust was a natural consequence of that era, but more than anything, it brought down the inner walls of First Bank and their older groups in Nigerian Banking industry. Those who led the new and Nigerian revolution in Banking were small business administrators who in the era past struggled against the tide. There was also Nigerian made Tycoons who were willing and able to stake their profit on Nigerian banks, the era of new banking cleared the sea of bad obstacles and at once proved an upfront to older.

The helm of that First Bank who is the head of one these big families was a man by name Lamido Sanusi.

A Reaction to Tunde Fagbenle on His view on Sanusi Lamido (II) by Iroabuchi Onwuka

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

It is no doubt common place, that all kinds of rift exists in the Banking in the world, such rift may no doubt have exists in Nigeria society, and just like other rift in the banking world, Nigeria which bears itself in plain history. For not many will choose to avoid the indelicacy of the Nigerian Civil War, the caprices of property acquisition of much of eastern Nigeria and the confiscation of their bank accounts by Obafemi Awolowo, who for many years, blocked the salary of civil servants after the war, many of them still worked without pay. The pension earned by the Easterners before the eve of Nigerian civil war remained unredeemed. Many of these people died in their hundreds of thousands while the world watched, left without direction in terms of financing, and left without an institution for many years.

The war came to an end in 1970, and from 1970 began the decade of reconstruction which inadvertently formulated the mindset of Nigerian society. It is in these recovery years that the significant rift between the Nigerians began to appear, the rift was between those who became the courier of Nigerian Banks during and after the war, and those who earned their pittance through ‘small cracks’ of lending and family borrowing, through the ‘inlet’ of trade and trans-border trade, through caveat emptor; the smaller units of businesses scraping around the larger, the law forbidding the expansion and the ratio in all things for space and rights which impeded mid cap companies. Such adverse business environment, largely out of mistrust eventually created a sense of business management, more like a form of attitude to business and to living which the banks completely endowed from the 70’s onwards. By the early eighties, few years after the fall of Shah of Iran, the Shell Company was readying to break in big in Nigeria and there was new and newer necessity of other banks.

The much of Nigerian banking can be described in three categories, one the Government managed, the Commercial banks which had their horns from the civil war era, and the Investment Banks which began to respond to the need of change in the larger world. The curtain dividing the east from the rest may fallen by this time, but the rift was established, so much so that Banks were a quasi property of certain people, who may now be called Old economy, the Commercial Markets, the First Banks and the Union Banks. In future as better stability of the country is forged, there will likely emerge other banks in the country that will conduct social Industrial programs and development in many of its forms. But the rise of military in Nigeria, in an age of oil boom gave birth to Investment Banks, initially and ultimately owned by Northerners but this time, private families with long roots to the bigger banks gradually emerged.

The expanded nature of the world business in the 80’s at a time when Nigerian oil began to make headway in the world, enabled Nigerians of the Investment grade to earn their ranks through the stock market and through international trans-border trade and in end, even attempted with help from Lebanese business group to provide interest rate for many francophone countries. Such attempt made these Nigerians soft targets for the neighbors and in places Cameroun they faced open hostility. It also led to the first and formal fracas between Igbos, Ijaws, certain Urhobos, and Syrians and Lebanese. These Nigerians also warned against the impact of Euro, citing that francophone countries had very little to earn from the sub-categorization of their West African Markets if the franc is pulled. But they felt it necessary to outdo these new Nigerians and many of these Nigerians exited from these areas, poured into Lagos and some parts of the east as at early 90’s.

A Reaction to Tunde Fagbenle on His view on Sanusi Lamido (l) by Iroabuchi Onwuka

By

Iroabuchi Onwuka

Yesterday article by Tunde Fagbenle on Sanusi question, “One year After, Is Lamido Sanusi TheMessiah’ (?), reveal much of the rift between Nigerian worlds. The gulf is considerable between Nigerians in US and Nigerians at home, especially in areas of market and in matters of banking and finance. Information mining I was told is increasingly lucrative in Nigeria. From this article I can understand why, why information or adequate repository of information is entirely rewarding and why information and pure play are keys for the market Nigeria. I felt it necessary to make relevant correction or provide some commentary on Fagbenle article since such matters concerns Sanusi and his supporters at CBN, in a matter between Sanusi and the people of Nigeria, between those who make it clear that his tactics has no place in banking anywhere and those his apologetics who mask the odor of . But it is late in the evening in NYC, North of Houston is noisy, and the rain falling in bits. You are forced to contemplate the veracity on the man Sanusi and his style of Banking. Has he done any wrongs? Has he really done any damage to the society that he is supposed to be a thorn in the flesh of his redoubtable?

But the man has courted controversy from day one, and he had publicly inveighed against a category of financial type who he nearly labeled as essentially corrupt, spanning of the levity that by the very nature such an Ones are incapable of good. We, the observers, are forced to chime on his vitriolic aghast the failure of Nigerian financial society. But Nigeria was not the only country that was affected, the world had a problem of compressed value, and their common place VaR was widely misleading.

We enjoin the many few who turned a new leaf in banking and of course, and who saw that prices had to be paid and that it may seem evident that CEOs will very likely to lose their offices. Such Mae Culpa is not enough in understanding the nature of the converging cascade in Nigerian banking and what happened. For it may or may not have seen evident to Nigerians, that there was other motive perhaps influence at work in what may have been a white hostility of Sanusi. Such hostility to other bankers may define itself as intently, given the greater insight that Sanusi seemed to have acquiesced at the exit of Yar’ duwa from office. If only an observer will have noticed the descent of his manners at the inception of Jonathan Goodluck as president, it will become clear that the braggadocio of the man had other ingredients.

One Year After, Is Lamido Sanusi The Messiah by Tunde Fagbenle

By Tunde Fagbenle

The story is told (by someone whose integrity I do not question) of what happened shortly after Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (SLS) assumed office as Governor of Central Bank. The young man, he said, on discovering the extent of rot within the system and the gargantuan corruption, nay evil, perpetuated by chief executives of some of the leading banks in the country, particularly Oceanic’s Cecelia Ibru and Intercontinental’s Erastus Akingbola, broke down in tears.

“Suddenly,” he said, “Lamido took out his handkerchief and began to wipe the tears rol
ling down his eyes. He was shaking his head and you could see he was sobbing inside. It was a most sobering sight.”

Sanusi could just not believe how any normal human being in whom the public reposed trust, could abuse such trust so wantonly and so inhumanly. He cried for Nigeria. At that point SLS swore with stern resolve that for as long as he remained the Governor of CBN, even if it would cost him his life, he would not relent until the culprits were brought to justice.

What SLS found was simply unimaginable. And weeks and months down the line, even more and more revelations tumbled out. The banking system that hitherto was seen as the hallowed citadel of integrity and rectitude had been taken over by Lucifer and had become the cesspit of corruption. The identified CEOs had corruptly enriched themselves to inordinate levels, with choice mansions in the choicest cities of the world traced to them individually or their proxies. Some had private planes rivalling those owned by some of the world’s richest persons. Some of these CEOs were worth trillions of naira; some were as rich as some state governments! It made Lamido believe that only the gallows was good enough for anyone who could be so perverse.

But the horrors that Lamido Sanusi discovered was not merely one of aggrandisement and self-enrichment, no, it was one that threatened the very fabric of the banking system. The level of exposure of some of the banks to margin loans and the oil and gas sector had rendered them almost insolvent and their capacity to continue as viable concerns very doubtful.

Sanusi came to the saddle exactly a year ago, replacing Charles Soludo, the egghead who had convinced us he was a whizkid set to revolutionise the banking industry and take Nigerian banks to global relevance and competitiveness. I was one of those taken in by Soludo’s razmataz, after all he was a professor of economics. Soludo introduced expanded capitalisation that forced the banks to increase their share capitals to a minimum of N25 billion, some from a mere N2 billion, telling those that could not make it to merge or close shop.

But in all of this, no one, certainly not silly me knew how little of real central banking our professor was doing; how much inefficiency pervaded – how much the real “professional” bankers were dancing rings around Soludo. The rot was deep but Professor Soludo was busy looking the other way. Now we would never know how much of it he knew or never knew.

But this is not about Soludo. It is about Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and one year of him as the Governor of CBN.

Lamido Sanusi came upon the scene literally on a white charger, fuming with righteous indignation. Rightly so. Unlike his predecessor who was plucked from the academia, completely green in practical banking, SLS combines both intellectualism and practical knowledge of banking, especially of risk management. Before becoming the governor of CBN he already knew half of the shenanigans going on in the banking industry and he was unimpressed by the affluence being flaunted by his colleagues in the banks. As CEO of First Bank, brief as it was, he felt even affronted by the vain and inglorious display of materialism and mediocrity by some of his peers. Then fate worked in his favour and he became governor of CBN overnight.

But is Lamido Sanusi the messiah he wants us to believe he is? He has made enemies for himself, powerful enemies. Those billionaires, nay trillionaires, he has ridiculed and de-robed are unforgiving. Those with vested interest in the banks he has dealt with are up in arms to get back at him. SLS has faced unremitting attack from them and others perhaps genuinely concerned with the probable implications of his irreverence on a sector known more for demure conservatism. Who is this rascal whose mouth runs at the drop of a hat while shooting wildly like a loose canon?

But one year on, Sanusi has earned the respect and trust of the international banking publics. None of his critics have so far been able to unearth any misdemeanour or professional misconduct against him in his banking career. His indignation is righteous then, even if frightfully unmeasured.

There are new and qualitative policies being introduced by Sanusi’s CBN to bring sanity and stability to the banking industry and growth to the real economy. Effective debt recovery measures have been introduced in the banks, and they are now mandated to make full disclosures in their reports just as harmonisation of their accounting period is prescribed. Strong and effective corporate governance is being enforced through the overhaul of the system of board appointments, tenure, and the requirement for responsible and efficient management. An asset management company (AMCON) has been established as a resolution vehicle to assist in the recapitalisation of the banks that have required CBN intervention.

The publics, local and international, are watching and hoping that with one year of angry intervention behind him, Sanusi would now calm down to ensuring a more moderate and collective approach. More importantly, it is hoped that President Goodluck Jonathan will not hearken to the pressure of those who love Nigeria less and are only hurt by Sanusi’s cleansing.

The system needs stability and integrity and I believe Jonathan should give Sanusi the room to make his rescue an enduring one.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (II)d By Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka

By Sampson Onwuka Iroabuchi

Aganga Olusegun references about Nigerian economy which we have cited, which does not exclude Nigerian economy needing ‘resource allocation’, fans flames of a man wonder with little more than his training at Goldman Sachs. We are therefore expected to be weary of what the man thinks of his role and position. We are expected to say that man parries himself as an advisory to the Fragile Union with no real long term strategy for the country’s domestic market. We are expected to say that his current tilt obliges the interest of Goldman Sachs so to speak. Therefore his commentary is probably a ‘put up’ by his compeers and perhaps indirectly so given the training at Goldman Sachs. He was called by many Nigerians an economic czar and a progressive which may all be the case, but from what he had said so far he is probable a lingering novice at the edge of the world financing or an economic Hit man from the stables of Goldman Sachs. I am certain that unless adaptability is part of Aganga’s hidden ingredient, he is not that credible and attention on the probability of disappointing Nigerians is very possible.

I sound out my warning on the vise of his lapses evident in his public statement, lapses which we can be summarized as a first level money market econometrics, lapses which he should amend and lapses not there to tear him down. I sound out this warning since experience with ‘epic of financial’ in 2008, where many of us were not loud enough in getting the attention of Nigerians and of CBN chair in matters arising from the Nigerian Stock market, especially in the year leading to the crash of financial economy. Nigerian domestic markets under the heavy weight condition of a Goldman Sachs will remain crippled long term. In a sense, drawing too close to a Goldman Sachs outfit is not a very easy engagement without serious network solution at home. If this concern is no avail, we should be worthy of the point that Nigerian Interest rate differential with respect to Europe will even at this point remain a problem for most businesses.



If capital appreciation of Nigerian unit of exchange is only inverse of a ‘super currency’ such as the dollars, ‘you suckers’ should disabuse your mind about any lingering hint of attracting or retaining foreign investors. Capital appreciation to the benefit of this host nation is not possible without interest rate differential pegged to the major currencies. For the real war of International Banks is to be measured by the ‘decision function’ of existing financial institution and from many market statistics most elemental of which is the interest rate. Capital appreciation if perforce through policies like Sanusi’s recent engagement will lead to a Robert Shilling’s ‘Irrational exuberance’ of Nigerian financial. In one sweep of market language, Nigerian economy will only point to an ‘extreme’ in the runway of Global macro. Such improbability of an ‘extreme’ may prove Nigeria a ‘maximum risk’ environment and as such unattractive to investors comfortable with long term investment. But spin off of asset attract International Vultures, spin off assets attract short sellers in the guise of International financiers, all of whom may short list themselves as lenders in the open Long term window but gradually permitting a short term borrowing that will cripple the long term view of the country or the long term borrowers. That’s to say that IMF and World Bank are baiting on the collapse on Nigerian economy in the years that the debt will last.



Credit facilities in Nigeria is very weak and almost nonexistent. Local Security Underwriters will therefore be forced in the ‘Long Term’ to confront the issue of super currency which Aganga now heads. In markets if not in financing, ‘Actual Capacitor’ for long term financing of major projects in any economy, for instance in Nigeria, should ram on the existing Stock markets and market direction, and when this is not the case, it gives away the indirect fact that ‘foreign capacitors’ and rate are currently overweight in such economy like Nigeria. As rate count on rate, we view the whole appointment and decoration from the ‘negative’ probability stand point, that Aganga Olusegun may be a Nigerian, and may be the Financial Minister and a good fellow but ultimately, he is a ‘negative externality’ to Nigerian economy. On this inability to spot and forward on Nigerian Naira, Market Nigeria will continuously ‘defy all principles of economics’.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (ll)c

Nigerian interests rate differential with major economies of the world is not that certain, and comparison is not that easy to achieve and as such little can be expected by way of growth of the Nigerian unit of exchange; the Naira. Many Nigerians may or may not be aware that the nominal Inflation of the country is well over 12%, a percentage rate by itself a colossal disaster given the seriously nonexistent Hedge for the Nigerian Naira. The capital appreciation of businesses doing business in Nigeria is beyond available econometrics, and those seeking to introduce themselves in Nigeria cannot be counted upon as a tool for gauging investment rate. For that we can only expect internal restructure of Nigerian market dynamics as the only protective device and for financing the minimalist return rate in domestic market which is only Long Term reverting. By this we mean that long term escape route in Nigeria is to be hijacked by International powers, for it seems that the IMF and World Bank are likely to assure that much of the continuous time profit from Nigerian Interest rate is soaked in the Nigerian debt repayment. The wider the gap between Nigeria and a Super Currency such as the US, the wider the percentage required to service the loans. The end result of this International indebtedness is the lack of alternative of financial institution, which is more than likely to lead to a choke in profit transfer. By that we lean too close to the probably theory of ‘sudden death’ syndrome of Nigerian Banking society, a very likely condition given the inevitability of non performing long term debt already evident in the country. Non performing debt as far as long foreign rates apply is a very likely scenario for Nigeria. Nigerian’s hedge and defensive strategy will gradually self destruct by ‘short waves’ of Inflations, a causality mainly due to International rates applying to Nigerian market directly and indirectly. These foreign rates, earn their way through any economy in the world and force its unit of exchange on such host, to undisputable degree that only cripple and clutch the Nigerian domestic unit of exchange.



Eventually Nigeria will pay a much huger price and will have to give up on any structured debt financing since the ‘actual’ rate - usually International in tedium - will like exceed the ‘conceptual’ rate of the economy which is usually Domestic. Short term note, Aganga’s appointment may be looked as an asset to the society but long term, this appointment of Aganga and his association with Gold Sachs outfit will damage domestic businesses. Judging from the perspective of a market research expert, I could say that the market factors currently available in Nigeria and the school of thought that Aganga is representing lead to one probable conclusion and one conclusion only, that Nigeria’s long term association with Goldman Sachs, World Bank, and IMF will not benefit Nigerian business society and economy. Whatever may be the interpretation for this elevation of the man Aganga, whatever may be the expected hedge for Nigerian Naira, we can be certain that Aganga’s promotion and decoration is not without consequences and reason, and his role as the polar tug of the Nigerian financial Cabal is not without International dragnet and puppetry.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (II) c By Iroabuchi Onwuka

By Sampson Onwuka Iroabuchi

Nigerian interests rate differential with major economies of the world is not that certain, and comparison is not that easy to achieve and as such little can be expected by way of growth of the Nigerian unit of exchange; the Naira. Many Nigerians may or may not be aware that the nominal Inflation of the country is well over 12%, a percentage rate by itself a colossal disaster given the seriously nonexistent Hedge for the Nigerian Naira. The capital appreciation of businesses doing business in Nigeria is beyond available econometrics, and those seeking to introduce themselves in Nigeria cannot be counted upon as a tool for gauging investment rate. For that we can only expect internal restructure of Nigerian market dynamics as the only protective device and for financing the minimalist return rate in domestic market which is only Long Term reverting.



By this we mean that long term escape route in Nigeria is to be hijacked by International powers, for it seems that the IMF and World Bank are likely to assure that much of the continuous time profit from Nigerian Interest rate is soaked in the Nigerian debt repayment. The wider the gap between Nigeria and a Super Currency such as the US, the wider the percentage required to service the loans. The end result of this International indebtedness is the lack of alternative of financial institution, which is more than likely to lead to a choke in profit transfer. By that we lean too close to the probably theory of ‘sudden death’ syndrome of Nigerian Banking society, a very likely condition given the inevitability of non performing long term debt already evident in the country. Non performing debt as far as long foreign rates apply is a very likely scenario for Nigeria. Nigerian’s hedge and defensive strategy will gradually self destruct by ‘short waves’ of Inflations, a causality mainly due to International rates applying to Nigerian market directly and indirectly. These foreign rates, earn their way through any economy in the world and force its unit of exchange on such host, to undisputable degree that only cripple and clutch the Nigerian domestic unit of exchange.



Eventually Nigeria will pay a much huger price and will have to give up on any structured debt financing since the ‘actual’ rate - usually International in tedium - will like exceed the ‘conceptual’ rate of the economy which is usually Domestic. Short term note, Aganga’s appointment may be looked as an asset to the society but long term, this appointment of Aganga and his association with Gold Sachs outfit will damage domestic businesses. Judging from the perspective of a market research expert, I could say that the market factors currently available in Nigeria and the school of thought that Aganga is representing lead to one probable conclusion and one conclusion only, that Nigeria’s long term association with Goldman Sachs, World Bank, and IMF will not benefit Nigerian business society and economy. Whatever may be the interpretation for this elevation of the man Aganga, whatever may be the expected hedge for Nigerian Naira, we can be certain that Aganga’s promotion and decoration is not without consequences and reason, and his role as the polar tug of the Nigerian financial Cabal is not without International dragnet and puppetry.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (II)b By Iroabuchi Onwuka

There is nothing wrong for the newly appointed Nigerian minister of finance, Olusegun Aganga, to sound familiar notes from Piguo on ‘financial stability’. There is nothing particularly wrong in indicating the need to inject 500 billion Naira into the international fund market. There is nothing wrong in staying awake to the deficit in Nigerian budget, a budget that was only passed a few weeks ago. But there is something wrong with Aganga providing no alternative to this ‘Well’ of economic ideas that do not necessarily apply in times like this.



There is something wrong with a Finance Minister talking about 15% deficit in the 2010 Nigerian Budget. The question that remain to be answered is where could the Finance Boss get the number and how did he arrive at the conclusion? Barely a few weeks ago, Nigerian Senators were still haggling over the issue of appropriation, and Senate President David Mark was still observing the clause by clause analysis of the budget. If Olusegun Aganga is any current with Nigeria economy and condition of its operation, he should have acquiesced on the nature Nigerian budget, let alone laud the society of 15% deficit.



This commentary by the newly appointed Finance head explains the mind construction of the young man, for it seems that he is intent on using familiar lines from his years at Goldman Sachs to explain the condition of your economy. In essence, he embodies what I might call Goldman Sachs’ ‘financial pneumonia’ for high rates, exploiting their financial products for the benefit and detriment of every business institution whatsoever. This fever seethes with attitude over new Nigerian economy, for the Nigerian National Assembly only passed the 2010 budget during the last week of March and first week of April 2010. Am yet to understand the source of the quotation of 15% deficit. The number and the percentage in many ways has a way of repeating itself in many businesses of the world and this issue of deficit only lead to financing from other International Sources include Goldman Sachs.



The Nigerian budget and financial analysis came down 4, 080 trillion to 4, 416 trillion, several trillions away from what it was a few years ago. Joint Venture cash calls came to 7 billion, Gross Domestic product is 5.47%, Sales of public and government property is about 9 billion naira and need for privatization causes received 107.208 billion and consolidation program came down to 309.13 billion and Consolidated Reserve Fund N4, 608, 616, 278, 213 only of which 10, 279, 158 . All of these came down to a supposedly inflation rate calculated at 11.2%. Given the Continuous time slide of the Nigerian Naira, there is a possibility that the % rate of Nigerian Inflation is much more than that.



The budget also retained other figures like Domestic borrowing, provisioned for 897.3billion and International investment around 500 millions. We have not started yet with the expenditure and as such the retained figures bring in the aggregate expenditure and retained revenue from last year. Perhaps the issue of the 15% deficit would have been arrived at from the mispricing of Nigerian crude oil or the expected returns from the overall National venture. Retained Revenue and aggregate expenditure comes down to 3.086 trillion.



Aggregate expenditure (4.608 trillion), statutory transfers (180.2 billion) Debt service (497 billion) and non debt recurrent (2.077 trillion) and capital expenditure (1.853 trillion) and deficit/surplus (1.521 trillion). These figures were lifted from several sources including a recent article by Nzeshi Onwuka and by BBC Vendor; Monitoring Africa. The staggering size of the figure quoted hear is considered unprecedented given the new fonts of the national project in the works of the many Nigerians.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (II)a

Investment Bank’s strategy such as Goldman Sachs are not too far from these bunch of lenders and are not too far from spotting deficits in your National budget. These Investment Banks always lend to business outfits, always lend to financial institution, to Hedge Funds and always tend especially to oil countries for long term purposes. Goldman Sachs like other Investment Banks always engage the real estate of stable economies of the world. Always engage the stock market of most countries of the world, especially countries where IPOS are monitored. Goldman Sachs always slush funds in many of their ‘shady deals’, all in such a way that the host country and investment grade will sour so high, so fast on the ‘long term greedy’ of a Gus Levy (which is an indirect snob on the greedy going long) that any crack on the rate of expected returns will shatter any business community. In Markets if not Banking and Financing, ‘Excess Returns’ is more or less equal to the Anomaly of Risk. Illiquidity as we find Greece today and in Nigeria 2008, is not without the influence of bad mathematics and manipulation. These market, Greece and Nigeria are high risk markets only useful for shorts. Greece today defaulted on number of real time ‘Expected Returns’ and with that came the instability of the their financial market. This financial failure could have only been the expected and now actual yield from Greece, for it seems clear to many economics that Greece neglected their Domestic Market when it accepted the International barometer for Euro membership. Greece, in accepting the custodian of European membership inadvertently choked the price movement or their local markets and in the end, they were destined to reap the grapes of debacle. In private investment from Europe and US, Greece was expected to grow like others, to practiced eyes that was only unlikely the case, as such the sudden nose of the Greek domestic market, collapsed with it the International investment and bond market, all of which were no surprises.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (I)d

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

In the argument, we can remind ourselves that in any business of the world, there are always ‘losers’ or ‘suckers’, and there are those who profit from the rest of them. In essence, there is no probable hiding place for the Nigerian economy from this time onwards, no room to secure its economic growth away from the International Society. This does not take anything away from the baiting in itself which is set for and against International Power banks and for their super currency. There is then a probable need to be cautiously optimistic of this Aganga’s new marriage with the world as captain of two ship. There is no point to pretend that the outcome of this new marriage and ship is detrimental, since it is very clear that the only ship that is likely to sink downwards is the very Nigerian Ship. The marriage of Nigerian financial to the rest of the world is exposed to accommodate opportunity for the fledgling economy, and in IMF and World Bank, they stand the chance of such opportunity. But this may not be the case, this is so far from the case that it is safe to assert that IMF and World Bank are only intent on making their profit from your prospective countries and not the other way round. This view is so complete in its downwards spiral that we can equally assert that national loses to the Banks are by several examples entirely inevitable going at least by the example of Greece and European Financial debacle. In blunt view, it is safe to cite that there is no need to expect any useful deals with these Banks, no need to promote these banks on any plausible grounds except one of loses and indebtedness. This problem of debt and debt structure, always put a funk on the stability of most countries of world, and instability occur because these countries are more than likely unable to pay the huge spike in debt. From such spike, CDO ‘Collateralized Debt Obligation’ essentially thaw, and the rest is just history as usual.



Greece financial debacle did not happen overnight. The compromising exposure of the Greek economy to the International rates at the expense of her economy and domestic market is for a million page the detriment of the country. Long Term Greece may have arranged big time deals with power house corporation for official public works much like ‘Nigerian Power Supply’ in Niger Delta, or in their case Olympics. Greece may have acquired or attracted International Hedge Funds management to give stability to its financial engagements, and like all businesses involving International markets, it was meant to be Long Term. But all Long Term engagement are economically noted by shorts. Short Term the Greeks inability to maintain its debt structure (which is only expected to be the case due to capital appreciation of the Super currency and its investment grade) forced the country to succumb to the tenets of the debt obligation and then failures of businesses naturally occur by way of capital depreciation.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (1)c

By Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka
Olusegun Aganga in his opening statement after confirmation sounded off the issue of Power Supply in Nigeria as a top priority and last week the Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan promised Niger Delta a total solution to its power supply. It is clear that we are witnessing a classic motif of Goldman Sachs in Public financing. Such motif of Goldman Sachs in Aganga statements are comments about the general assumption of debt, debt in the guise of pay package and for balancing the budget. All, and much of these traits add up to long term financial of these banks and form part of the portfolio strategy of Investment banks dealing with relatively weaker economies. In a sense, Goldman Sachs’ financial product for nations include debt structure and need to bail out failing institutions, for all these points to the essence of International Monetary Fund which is rubric of Aganga commentary.



But the IMF is not a voluntary organization, it is an assortment of Banks and one Bank. In many ways, the new International responsibilities of the ‘New Nigerian’ in office compel the ‘See’ of International financial society such as IMF on Nigerian market. This oversight is uncalled for and unlikely to pay, for how could Nigerian economy compel itself to suffer the rates of International markets. This can only mean one thing and one thing only that International standards will now apply to the Nigerian market. But this is not good at all, not that foreign ‘see’ is not necessarily a bad interference but IMF and World Bank are just a bunch of International financial organization owned by Investment Banks. These banks include the likes of Gold Sachs. The Investment Bank in question bring with it a ‘Negative externality’ that usually impact on a third world performance in Real Time money market. Such bad performance is almost a guarantee for profit for these Banks doing business in Third world economies. The profit is at best a symptom of weak domestic third markets, a condition that will become weaker as Investment Banks such as Goldman Sachs offer their debt structure. In that guise much of the current affiliation with IMF and World Bank with Nigeria is not that useful for they operate with as much agenda as the Investment banks of US before the 2008 collapse. These foreign donors apply the same rule of profiteering and commercial engineering bereft of the defunct US Investment Banks and only ‘suckers’ like our good Nigerian are likely to believe that IMF and World Banks are International helpmate for their prospective economic venture.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (I)b

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

It is expected that the Nigerian finance Minister, Aganga, is perhaps meant to serve as the primary relief pitch for CBN chairman Mallam Sanusi Lamido. The CBN chairman’s reactionary tendency towards his fellow bankers proved detrimental to the International rating of Nigerian Banks. It may not have seem clear to the ‘unsuspecting’ Nigerians that but Sanusi’s personalized view of Nigerian banking society and funds of funds management was far too radical for a Central Bank Chairman. The role of the Central Bank Chairman in price moderation is Interventional, perhaps adjudicative but at no point is it Executive. Price is a quantity of ‘economic statistics snapshot’ and as such Price is normal market condition is expected to determine its own range in any market. It is however this price in terms on Nigerian market and in terms of Naira that now serve as our primary concern in accepting Aganga under the canopy of Sanusi. Sanusi’s quick fix actions inadvertently injured the international reputation of Nigerian financial products, a case in command that many people will still argue. But Sanusi’s policies without the international ‘anchor’ of IMF were only destined to hurt, a fact which Sanusi himself may have noted given his final tilt towards Universal Banking. He was trying to amend the Nigerian International reputation through Universal Banking. This idea of Universal Banking open us to the reasons behind Aganga nomination for he will be redeeming grace of such ineluctable error. Aganga serves as a formal rejoinder of Nigerian Banking society to the rest of world.



What is however not formal is the financial war which has broken up between Nigeria and the rest of the world. In short view, Aganga’s appointment as the Chairman of the Board of World Bank - days after his conformation - is only a form of death sentence of Nigerian domestic market and probably a trap. This Aganga’s decoration therefore conceals everything and nothing, for we are now left to entertain the question of Nigerian preparedness for such financial endorsement and trade fair. My candid view and answer is that Nigeria is not ready for this big time engagement, for the country’s domestic economy is seriously weak and uncompetitive. Nigeria is sucked into an al warfare from which the certainty is further collapse due to very weak Internal market dynamics. But this war is not like any war known to us, and the end of the war is close to what we find in today’s Greece. The war between Nigeria and the rest of Super Currency world its clearly monetary, clearly statistical, clearly digital warfare of market statistic. Nigeria will eventually be needing such thing as implied debt and rate, forced through the international rate pendulum of ‘super currency’, a rate that swings in one direction and by its energy, an International rate that wreck the domestic rate. This is where the issue lies since Nigerian economy and its Naira has become absorbed into the equation of International financial body. By entering into the same ring as these BIG others, the economic value of Nigeria no longer apply. Then, will apply the inherit problem of debt due to decline in debt management, a condition ultimately expected to be redeemed by a coalition of good fellows; Investment Banks.

Olusegun Aganga, Goldman Sachs outfit, and the Nigerian economy (I)a By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Aganga Olusegun is the new Finance minister and Chairman of the Board of World Bank? I can’t explain it. He has the best wishes of the country but there is need to be ‘cautiously optimistic’ with this new man on the block.



The appointment of Olusegun Aganga as Finance minister and Chairman of the Board of World Bank and IMF was hailed by Nigerians as a step forward in the attempt to redress Nigerian Financial image. Olusegun Aganga with all due respect to his fans seem to be relatively unknown. The man is a largely unknown quantity so to speak, a fact that is complicated by his recent honorary as Chairman of the Board of World Bank and IMF. It is not to be said that the new title is expected to enlarge his International weight, for it seems that he was a very light quantity. The much of what we know of the man is that he helped to negotiate a 4 billion dollar rescue package for certain Nigerian Banks sometime last year, details of which were not very clear. It is now speculative that Goldman Sachs was probably the Jack in the box and given the new details of Goldman Sachs and it chicanery on CDO, we should have course for concern. If however such isolated incident is enough to penetrate the ranks of the Nigerian financial institution, Aganga is perhaps more than welcome to work for the country in terms like this and we wish him the best.



The intention of those who awarded Olusegun Aganga the Robe at the World bank is very clear that Nigeria as a country is to be given a larger role in Africa and perhaps the world. Nigerian economy is currently straddled in its cusp between the dark embrace of 2008 ‘epic of financial’ whose victims included Soludo and the hope of its financial survival under the aegis of Sanusi. In many ways and for what it’s worth, the country needs to welcome the man and his Alma mater, and for the sake of this trust, Nigeria need to be cautiously optimistic given the additional importance attached to the man and about the robe that was vested on him. From the nature of the unprecedented promotion, it will seem to suggest that Aganga Olusegun’s appointment is ‘Custodian’ in the ‘Hedge Fund’ traditional sense of word, for we know that the post is nothing else than an ‘empty suit’ of recognition, a recognition which explains the ranks of Investment Banks who engineered his decoration at World Bank. This appointment alone should have sent out the right signal to Nigerians and to Nigerian media, that something is wrong with the set up, that some is wrong with a Finance Minister caught between two opposing interest, his loyalty to Goldman Sachs and his interest in serving his country. Whereas, Americans would tilt to challenge the other titles, our talk active Nigeria seem to acquiesce. But this is not the first time.