Nigerian Market...No. 5b.

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If the principle of economics is applied to Nigerian market at this time, Nigeria is a country that is going through what the Mexicans experienced in 1994. In essence, there is serious grounds for making the difference in current world using Nigeria as a bait. To be sure we can use Mexico as a an example.

In 1991 the world saw a major downturn in oil crisis. The boom of the years leading to the
Iragi and middle crisis had come to an end and there was urgent need in terms of oil and energy.
The boom in oil was briefly enjoyed till sometime in 1991 when the rest of the world began
to respond to huge linear investment in developing economies of the world. America was responding badly to oil shortages which led pressure to invest in oil rich areas of the world.
Then there was the issue of Super currency which third world countries had to deal with. Majority of that investment coming from United States went into Mexico shrinking in the process, useful investment in other areas of that market. Like the sort we discovered in Nigeria till April 2008.

By 1994 there was severe economic retraction in Mexico which heralded worldwide economic meltdown. At the time of the incident most of these American investors were forced to pull out from Mexico, envincing a crash of substantial proportion. When the world was ready to proclaim obituary to Mexico, when the investment nolonger poured in, Mexico began to sudden show life.
What crashed Mexico in 1994 was huge linear investment in the oil which forced businesses in many areas of the country depreciate.

The case is simply obvious in Nigerian market today, the country had gone through the problem over zealiant investing leading to all kinds of ruination of its internal dynamics. Of course, exact fingers cannot be pointed to oil but the rise of oil and petroluem in the last 5 years would have meant that Nigeria as a country would enjoy a useful profit to better its country but this was not so. Rather it suffered from people using the country as a business and Nigerian petroluem as a corporation that only generated the smallest sum from oil, smaller than most cultures of the world.

Then there is the issue of IMF and its bad loans which compound trade deficit, and then a scam baiting Super or premium currency.

Yet, Nigeria that is forloughly, may actually be the right place to be in terms of investment.
Since Charlse Soludo made the grave mistake of allowing the capitulation of foreign currency in Nigeria, there is serious deficiency of foreign currency in Nigeria, in dollar terms. The recent lending exercise of ECB, World Bank and in Nigerian case IMF, can be described as an attempt to resourcitate the debt to error of Nigerian parts, which can only further deny Nigeria this freedom to restructure its internal dynamics.

Yet the distance is much between the debt or loan to cripple and the weakening of Nigeria current market. The vultures will gradually return to Nigeria and under the current CBN, foreign investment that has no interest in direct investment in Nigeria will return. This is therefore the best time for commodity markets since they are little to win both ways, and will continue to be the case as long it is necessary.