HEDGE HUNTERS; hedge fund Masters on the rewards, the Risk and Reckoning' By Katharine Burton

Author; Katharine Burton

Published by; Bloomberg Press

Year; 2007

Pagination; 206

ISBN; 978-1-57660-245-4

Reviewed By; Iroabuchi Onwuka




The theme


The book is about Hedge Fund managers who rose to the repectable ranks of senoir advisers and managers of large funds. Such masters include Michael Steinhardt whose father saw him through education inspite of the gambling problems, Marc Lasry, Lee Ainslee, Boone Pickens; the 'impertubable oil man', Dwight Anderson, Josh Friedman, Brain Bradshaw, Julian Robertson, Daniel Loeb, Richard Perry, Craig Effron, etc. The book is entirely their story covering how they faired in their prospective businesses in times of trial and in times of truimph. In one clear langauge, Hedge Hunters is a book about the trials and triumphs of successful business men in an era of business uncertainty. It is not an understatement that people are interested in the history behind these successful men and women given the rise of Hedge Fund mangement and hunters since the late 70's, but how their story is brokered to the public in light of earlier successes is what the book essentially provides. The book is therefore suggesting the left and right of the demands of the business and how newcomers as well as old can profit from them. Hedge Hunters is published published by Bloomberg Press.


The Body


The success of this book lay not in its story but on the organising principle evident, so to speak, in these famous lives. If the author is willing to conduct a second survey of these lives, given the advent of the 2008 financial collapse, then there is room for the book to do much better in the book stands and in content. If the book did not make it big in the streets, it is probably due to the basic assumptions evident in the famous lives she treated. The profile of the book is a basic journalistic outline constructed mainly on Q and A, with the author providing a summary of the whole. Is she failed to hint on how the evolution of the hedge fund industry effected these lives and how these lives changed the industry completely, it for the simple reason that the book mainly highlighted the brighter days of these success story, as if the author was intent on forcing a success of the book by clipping the beautiful side of their stories without deeper probe into these stories and these lives.

The above statement does not mean that the author provided little or no light on the future of the industry neither does it mean that she cast enough doubt of a monolith's financial industry. The light she provided is my own opinion sincere that the industry is exceding its boundry, but such statements about the future of Hedge Industry is to be expected for it serves in many ways an interesting commentary. But a woman seeking to knock the common prejudices of the Hedge Fund Industries, should have gone an extra mile of providing the pros. of the Hedge Industries - archieved through the lives of the named Hunters - and the cons. of Hedge Hunting through the unnamed who did not survive the market, who are forgotten. She would used the platform of endeavor to demonstrate why women may or may not have prospered and how the missing half of the industry may or may not have wondered why.

Hedge Hunters as a literal work belong to the genre of 'Wall Street Wizards' the predecesor to the 'Wizards of Wall Street Wizards' and 'New Wizards of Wall street', but unlike these books that illustrated the basic facts of the interview in question, Hedge Hunters draw from the top and bottom of few people concerned. In many ways what you wind up reading is the inter-connecting stories of people who worked in certain capacity within the industry and how they used their influence to perfect their role as managers. These businesses stemming from the individual who trained them and the school of Hedge Fund they represented. In many ways, it is the face of the people who mastered the act of Hedge fund market that we read but in reading, we learn of the schools of influences that made this individual decided in business.

While these names will make us wonder at the sense of the book, it becomes gradually clear that certain people did not rise to the top of current business community without family problems and without hardwork. For instance Michael Steindhart and his jailed gambling father who managed get to pay his son's way through the college as a promise to the young man inspite of his personal failures. The case of Steindhart as an industry by himself began from his years as a young man trying out his hands in the family business and then the decided to build on that luck and family Trust what will become a successful business group. The story of Steindhart open a flood of insights into what makes anyone successful, that discipline and luck go and globe, but sometimes you need to be in action to find what area is best suited for you.

Then there is Marc Lasry whose story provide us with account of his 'intorelance for losing', but the relationship between risk and losses and the psychology type it tend to suggest was not mentioned in the book, except in the context of the next pick in the role of Craig Effron. This may reveal a contradictory nature of the man, perhaps an element of 'risk management' which Burton did not explioit. In that contradictory sense, we read of Marc Lasry saying that "everyone sees the same situations, but there are only a few who end up investing and even fewer of those who do well" and in the book, the author Katharine Burton seem to recognise this very part of Lasry well in paraphrasing his statement that "the art of investing, says Lasry is about seeing opportunnities that other managers don't see". From a man who has a knack for risk to the very man with a stronger knack for losing, the question is why does he, Marc Lasry, try to bet on probability. The answer to the question lay not in what he is saying but in what he does which in that sense is the secret of behind the strong will of the Hedge Huntes. The book goes on to cite for instance the debacle of Asian Markets of 1997 and 98, there was a lot of gaps in the Asian marekets, and according to Lasry not many people went to look at the stocks available. If they had, they would have discovered that the values of these companies were just suppressed, many of them were actually good companies.

The book goes to demonstrate other groups of money managers, Boone Pickens who she termed the 'impertubable oil' and his picks in the business which include Brain Bardshaw, David Meaney, Michael Ross and Alex sweczyk, all of whom believe in making out the small caps that have a tendency to rise-small cap to Big Cap. These individuals Pickens believe will lead the new era of Hedge Fund management. Then there are great ones like Dwight Anderson and Match Julius 'Doyens of Debt' who use their knowledge of Debt recovery and Bankcruptcy expertise to buy debt ridden companies with a view of helping their recovery from it and then the pay. Their picks include Jeffery Schachter adn Burtin Weinstein. Dwight Anderson called the 'Phoenix Phenomenom', whose pick is shown in Roberto Migone, perhaps the only hedge fund managers to compare true line freakonomics with the reality of surviving the hedge fund industry. Then there are others like Julian Robertson, Richard Perry, Daniel Loeb, Jim Chamos, who are posses a distinct degree of personal discipline and personal ability as 'manager's manager', among other risk drive-in. In naming the masters and the replacement and thier immitation we gain a better insight into mindset of the personel and the story behind them.

In many ways, the book is intended to illustrate the angles of distinction in the business of Hedge fund through the lives of the masters who lived and live it. If the connecting thread between these groups of serious men and women is their ability to manage risk then thier greater ability to withstandand pressure in terms of losses and profits become the line of demarcation. For this, there is a tendency towards summarising the book as an argument that the US Hedge Fund indusry can be understood from the perspective of personalities who grail the very top of the business ladder, for it seem clearly obvious that they could not have made it for such a long time without withstanding the probate burn of other people's money nor are bereft of the ability to hold the line of profit in times of heavy trading. If the top of trading is cracked, the pinnacle will naturally force a downturn but the exit strategy of these giants will make the pinnacle not so much a 'peak as it is a plateau'.

Conclusion

Some famous Psychologist, perhaps Sigmund Freud once said that certain level of human confidence inundate pure ego. He goes on to say that for some peope this is mainly natural and when such ego is fully exercised the only way forward would be downwards. The creative force of ego was overlooked, especially ego stemming from personal homework. But this ego as a form of confidence is by its intoxicating and when we place the Psychologist argument next to frontline politicians like Julius Ceaser, such intoxication is 'absolutely'. In advanced psychology of money if not in Hedge Hunt, this is not case, this not nearly the case for we know that some situations when money is involved can agitate the high art within and then the sparks goes up.

The inexurstible hunt for funds of all kinds has be seen by many as a case of ego, especially the case of Hedge Hunters whose exuding charismatic myth. But the public can now analyse that behavior as a mere side effect of those many years of hardwork, of delicate calculations, of foresight and of ruthlessness. As such ego in business of Hege Fund is as equal to needed confidence as confidence is equal to the coronation of market information, financial research and risk management. The varying nature of Hedge funds is easily tied to these discipline. The other discipline within the industry where success is due in part to the character of the managers in the main event, in part to the training of the managers and schools of training, but at large, Hedge Fund management is all about the ability to dig deeper in course of financial event in order to understand the risks involved and how to management risk through strategic study and forecast. Safe implementation of any startegy is a very necessary tool.

commentary

From the days of Benjamin Graham 'intellingent investor' and with Dodd 'Security Analysis', the world of Value business and Hedge Fund has not been the same. Taking risk in any business which is a form security Analysis need people who are willing to toe a certain line in business. Then faith in the analysis we obtain from company's profile and faith in the conclusion we draw becomes a derivitive of one's own experience in the business. For this, we may notice a shift of function in the table of Hedge Fund managers from the role of an analyst for analysis sake to the role of managers who are not only part of the business they represent, but have the working knowledge of the companies in question and how to expedite the fund in thier charge. This simple fact was not treated in the book, as such a lot of gap exist such that a second book in intently necessary to explain the evolution of Hedge Fund market from the eyes of these lives and also in terms of value. Not only in terms of value added measures but on what these managers have done by their own experience and training. How unique training proves a unique perspective in the trade industry become self expiated by the author and the book.

The book did not highlight the impact of Banking industry in the Hedge Fund as perhaps noted by the eyes of these managers and Hunters. The book suggested an expansion of the Hedge Fund industry has taken place, but this is almost explosion of Hedge Fund managers since the days of the so-called masters. For instance we know that in the 1980's, institutional investors, mutual funds, pension funds, etc around the world have become very evident in countries GDP. Since the days of China and other emerging socialist economies like India entering the common market, there has been new faces in Funds business and newer faces as the world catches up to China. From mutual funds and Hedge Funds of many countries in the world at slightly over 700 billion in the 80's to 5 trillions in 2000's. We are nolonger dealing with an industry of very select champions rather a world of stories of successful hedgefund managers.

Katharine Burton seem to play too close to the success stories of well established Hedge Hunters but may neglected the younger upstarts who would been the connecting thread between the passing and the present; which is really the future. From the lense and lenses of these masters whose stories become human in the book, we can say that the book met its primary target only to the degree that it should be accepted as a book of stories with no psychological relevance beyond the pathos of these persona non grata in Hedge Fund. But this misgives on the great 'potentials' of the book, that as much as people are interested on the binding intellectual tie of these success stories and thier human department, they are happier, perhaps with the guiding geniuses of these people; that is the infectious psychology torching the industry, the people who make the industry and the industry torching their inner psychology. When this is truly harnessed, the broader picture emergers and only then, emulation, as a possesive pronoun in world money and Hedge Fund becomes a 'different matter'.

'Banks Redlining' is still a monstrous phenomenom in US markets

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Redlining is a term we can avoid if we choose to. It concerns the act of putting a demarcation on the neighborhood of interest where Banks and other financially regulated and chartered institutions are only required to lend based on that neighborhood. By this acts, neighbourhoods may rise to American challenge due to Banks present, or may become cripple due to the Banking acting out their division based on what obtainable in the society. This practice of crippling neighborhoods through lack of appropriate funding continue today throughout America and goes a long way to explain the natural mind construction of several American society, where Banks can doom or boom any part of the country or any business at any time. This idea of profiling - artificially racial among other sorts - is so serious in New York that Bank Charters are willing to employ Asians and Asian Americans of certain stock that never lend to you as African American. Except for occassional scattered few who may go that route of American lending practice, but this is a very rare treat and many of them are leading at the ropes end end of their Job. If no one is willing to take the blame for the use and abuse of lending in New york, then attention should be made to those who represent the Federal Banking Acts in New York and other Federal reserves on the ground such as former Federal Reserve secretary of Bank of America, Timothy Geithner who is now secretary of Treasury and former associate of Federal Housing Authority Andrew Cuomo who is the so-called New York State attorney General. It is difficult to clarify how such acts could actualy take place in a state where much of the citizens are seriously struggling to earn a living and how it could go unnoticed for many decades. But using parameters in terms of Hedge funding and funding activities of the market, we can exploit better holes in the whole question, using indexes such as Credit Suisse First Boston, Hedge Fund Research-HFR, the Hennessee Group, Standard and Poor's s&p, and probably the Hedge index from Center for 'International securities and Derivitives markets' and other managed account Report.

Today's society of learners, especially among the African American who feel seriously defranchised from everything, including Public Television and Television Rights, are not even concerned with the problem of the 'Redlining' and other loan malpractices in US and in New York. For several reasons, much more should be done to make public the facts that the monstrous practice of the last century leading to civil rights era is still a very present and threatning danger to American Urban life. African Americans society and market is no more different from other world emerging economy which grativitate Billions of dollars every day, and if enough attention is given to the African American market, there is a tendency to believe that America would likely be better off than much of its current performance. That this view is seriously mistaken as side a effect of capitalism might have deceived the world into thinking that investigative inquiry into banking activities by third parties should not be taken serious. But the quest however continues, irrespective of the difficulty with African American audience in doign their bit in promoting the right manners in Banking.

Of the few books that I have managed to read in the past weeks, which include the 'American Dream' by Jason DeParle, the 'Universal Banking' edited by Anthony Sanders and Ingo Walter - published by New York University Salomon Center, 'Black Business and Economic power' edited by Alusive Jalon, and the 'Feds' by Martin Mayer, it is only the 'Feds' by Martin Mayer that attempted to speak eloquently of this problems with Redlining, both in terms of the previous years and in current American terms. In Deparsle 'American Dream' we learn of the civil struggle gainst Welfare program, where three lives of women and the children became the central fix in the whole debate and the author made out the case, but nothing concerning the root of the problem was ever discursed at all, that is problably not possible to remove the Welfare without the more erroneous problem of Banking cheating. In the 'Universal Banking' the book reflected the history of the banking in United States through the eyes of senior lecturers and in terms of 'efficiency' and 'growth' . The book highlighted several question of banks 'should banks be in the securities business and insurance, and where and not universal banks should be regulated given its perform relationship to 'specialist firms' and Hedge Funds in Globl markets. The book 'Universal Banking' also highlighted the abuses of Banking industries in taxes, especially the CHASE national bank and Chase Securities and Income involving Albert Wiggin to the Glass-Seagal Act in 1933. Yet no mention at any time was made in the Book about the need and necessity to trace some of the troubles, abuses, and prejudices of 'Redlining' in Banking industry to inner cities of American society. The last of the books is called 'Black Business and Economic Power' concerns business in African American society did not at any time treat the problem, saving for one mention of the history of Banking in Africa in the article 'Money, Credit, and Banking in Colonial and Post Colonial West Africa' by Adanmu G. Adebayo, where highlights of ABC-African Banking Corporation, West African Currency Board, SAP, ECOWAS and so on was made, and nothing that serious was ever said about African American businesses in the last 20th Century.

I managed to read Martin Mayer's book titled the 'Feds' twice, published in 2001 by the Free Press of Simon and Shuster Inc New york, the author made serious arguments about the 'monstrous' acts of denial perpetrated by Banks which if Americans should per chance the record, it could lead to a matter of distrust of Banks. But this it just the 'if'. The Book called the 'Feds' deserves a careful review but it details out the whole measure of what the House of Reps have been doing for some time especially the position of CRA - Congress for the Community Re-investment Act (CRA), where at least in "1991 Congress included the FDIC improvement Act a requirement that when 'CRA' find violations of equal credit opportunities Act, they must refer to the Department of Justice. In the 'FEDS', the author who is not African American exposed what he called ''monstrous'' practice of this redlining which he argued was much more Civil Justice was instrumental in be-deviling African American business and businesses with some of them getting the same message of the so-called inadequacy of credit. Then those who can get a mere drop in the Loans and Venture funding, get serious punitive requirement. But who are we kidding, it is seriously encouraging to make such inquiries into Banking since it mirrors the challenges of the Feds in Today's market, and not only that, it allows us to have a first hand look at what is happening to our financial institutions and its central question of survival. My inspiration to extend any useful review of the whole thing come from this book and the author Martin Mayer should be congratulated for necessarily highlighting the problems and any relevant architect of monetary policy, both of the Executive arm and the Legislative should do the same. Martin Mayer is credited with up to 30 books on Banking and in the 'The Feds' he challenged the State and Feds to do more in terms of investigating the normalised bad manners of the Banks towards lending. In many ways there is a serious connection of the likes of I, who get slammed everyelse and the young and older African Americans who have lost hope in the Banking industry. The question who know what is really happening to Banks? and who can widen that challenege by asking Barack Obama and his compeers to look at the serious problems of denial of loans and services to minority African Americans.


In short view, many many blacks and in fact Africans looking for loans to do business will not get it in New York, except for Mortgate loans in slums where half of the buildings are likely to loose their value with time, and then the 're-possession' due to payment strangled by loss of Job. Yet, the attention of many people is not so much what the banks do in mortage industry, nor the issue of Collaterized Mortage Obligation but what is happening to small American businesses that are owned and managed by certain range of minorities. The language of open source committee does not infect with action on what happens in a trade situated condition when the world of that finance is like the very monetary 'machine that can go on itself', nor do we expect Composites that run other finance materials to explain it all since it goes beyond the reach of many average time investors. Much more incumbent is what happens in derivative market where international markets join heads with American company and groups, in a place where the gap is further widened by different levels of repos. Thus in doing this, the competition that take place during ins and outs of what now happens in our daily business where people who receive enough company incentive will literally deny such incentive to certain people to permit indulgence, will not allow a careful review of this serious problem of lending malpractice. The attempt by the Federal Open Market Committe to investigate certain claims may do more harm than good while the authors who write about African American business and the role of Banks in America might choose to avoid this part of their service to enable a survival rope to continue in their career.


The malpractice of feeding only a particular group of Americans loans and offering credit expansion should however be investigated by Federal Bank Supervision and Federal Bank Agency (FBA) and they should look into what actually cripple African American business, and why they are not seriously represented at any level of business practice available any where in the world. The same should also be said of the 'Truth-in-Lending Act' enacted in 1969 which left the FEDS with some powers to essentially legislate through the three banking regulators among the Home loan Bank Board, the Bureau Credit Unions, the Interstate Commerce Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, the Civil aeronautics Board, the Agriculture Department, where power structures have the power to probe the activities of Banks and Financial institutions under their canopy. It will be very difficult to make such thing happen given the extra ordinary impact of mid-income Americans in today's world. But Martin Mayers position is only worthy of re-investigation but help to widen the gap in knowing what happens in a society where Banks profile others according to their wish.


There are at least 5000 banks and financial institutions in New York, and barely a handful of these banks are majority owned by Blacks. I mean, we can count very less than nameless ten in number including Insurance companies and old foundations owned by African Americans. In many ways the problem will continue long after now, even as we hope against the facts that some studies should be done in this world of inquiry. The African American business men and women are seriously surpressed except for proven talents, and so is their market. The major fulcrum in that whole engine is the banking sector of American finances, a fact that is so understated except for cases when Banks who 'wanna' look good will put a few black eagles in their teller services and in their front line. In many areas of New York, to be sure Queens, you don't have to show up if you are not like 'them'. Yet nothing is done by the US congressional committe to micro-manage the problem, to effectually conduct investigative study through FHA (Federal housing Authority) about such practices especially now that it has taken a very sophiscated form. That role of Bank in determining the first and last of what happens in our society may also lead away the stranger facts of determining the shocking lack of African Americans is senior management positions, not that the talent is not there but the Funds available and securities curve and other National and International derivitive markets are only open to specialised units and fund managers with safety nets.



And speaking of safety nets, US trade Almanac allow us to view what happens to the so-called U.S Total Retirement Market where even rackets from Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve Board, National Association of Government Defined Contribution Administration, American Council of Life Insurers, Internal Revenue Service provide a degree of funding for the general American, but such open tray of Funding never make it to the proper hands of African American Business who desperately need it. It has infact gotten much more worse in the last decade following the rise of the Euro pretending as counterweight to common benchmarks and common markets adn rise of immigrant populations of Asia. Obama's 700 Billion dollars spending and the spending done in hundreds of billion by Bush to the Americans may have been expected to filter through to the working ranks of American society, but structure and in mocking jest, it will not reach the small business who need it. This is likely the case and may well be, given the highly selective attitude of American banks towards lending, a selection that is entirely visible and hide away the profiling status of these inner cities Americans. Much of the problems of the civil rights era did not even highlight the role of Banks in creating financial inequality between Whites and Blacks in every part of United States and for lack oversight committe of the part of these African Americans, there is virually no mention of this athrocity of profiled lending by Banks. Yet the bad lending acts of Banks in New York, the Bad lending acts of finanicial institutions associated with the world do not get a mention in several books of the world. Many people who have complained that this non-lending behavior of Banks is still evident are nolonger with the banking industries, they get strategically isolated, and those who still complain make a case for themselves and may and may not not point out the root of the problem, which is the Bank.


The advent of Obama's nomination for the Nobel Peace prize as conferred on him by a collage of peoples representing the institution in Norway, had given new tension on the merits of his accomplishment. But the price may not have been for peace that is to come but for his effort in encouraging diplomacy in line with the likes of Bishop Desmond Tutu, Nelson Mandela, and late Martin Lurther. These fore mention group represents the era of civil struggle and how they sought to put away the devisive issues of their day through diplomacy. This nomination of Obama forces a new era of that civil struggle to begin, that the likes of Obama as with other men and women of international repute, are now recognised for their effort is forcing changes in better life programs and in advancement of women's movement. From that angle of fighting poverty and poverty prevention, there is required necessity to remind ourselves of those who have made significant efforts in changing the attitudes of Banks towards other Americans and other citizens. That effort must now be made of what is trully wrong with Banks and other financial institutions having to only extend loans to people who look like them and to a large extent enjoin the same religion. Not too many people will overlook the monstrousity of Indian financial industry in India, where people are turned down on loans for being a certain kind of Caste. Not only in India but in Korea, in South Africa, in Russia, and in Japan where people who do not belong to the 'family' or not among the numbered are to be ignored and should not even try to ask for loans. But they can all pretend to be good people in world markets. In India, there is the monstrousity of voting rights where half of the population are not required to vote, they are not illegible to vote and then there is women's right issue which all carry into the banking and housing industry where the shame is fully unleashed. In many ways, the idea of Redlining which seem to be original to America in the years past, is a mere drop in the bucket concerning what goes on and around the world in terms of profiling and in terms of prejudice, very still evident and US, very much alive in New York City

The US Federal Reserve and the problem of 1981/2

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Many markets and financial analysts are seriously suspect that the US feds are going to end the year at current rates, which might suggest that the Fed's attention is driven to hold back the weight of Bank's earning until early next year when the full effect of Obama's spending has fully taken place. The short drama in the past few months over the vote of confidence by Obama on Benanke, may have given analyst something to work with, that in the interest of Benanke playing on History as the saving strenght of America economy in times of crisis, Benanke will widen that power by a small interest rate raise to put the country seriously robust until when necessary. But this is not the case and probably won't be. Some analyst have said that a .25 interest rate this year by US federal Reserve will put the economy above 5%, a robust growth that seethes with resentment on the problem of inflation. Inflation in deed might harm the long term view of America Bond market forcing attention to be placed on the strong dollars. On the significant participle of foreign banks and IOU, strong dollars is necessary to handle the problem of inflation on the short term. A strong dollar policy will also keep oil prices in check against the expansionary view of the Americans economic policy. If 0.25 would have happened, American economy would be left with excess money in circulation which may offload as high crude oil price stemming from trade deficit over weak currency. But this may not be the case. If Benanke had gone that route before now, many people of course won't have noticed that the recovering growth of American economy is not fully charged. Above all, only few would seen that such interest rate raise would have slightly weaken American economy given the position of current successes as a false start. The play on trade was on Crude oil which some traders thought will ballon like last year given the might of Euro leading to the crash, but it was a quicker since others equally believed against the hype. In many ways, a strong dollar policy was only favorable idea in times like this.


But this is where the problem begins. The wound of world crisis is still fresh over the incidents of the financial debacle that rocked markets last year. The problem was finally figured out(as I have maintained) that attention ought to be placed on the dollars and not the Euro, and for us to get a better sense of the market it has to be based on the dollar and then the constituent member of that market. In a sense, the culture of money had to be directly equal to rising value-that the value of any market by any stretch is necessarily by will of a bench mark, like say the dollars of world order which form in many ways the point of the moving arrow. The only thing to remember is that the markets of the world are like a common arrow, where the rest of body are the constituent members, such that the whole of the world markets are necessarily part of that common and singular arrow shot from shaft with a particular direction. This is to be executed with right intention, with or without the view of necessarily hitting the Lady Luck, but non the less in consistent one direction non the less. This view I think is the whole philosophy of market systems. In many ways, there is such a thing as common markets, a sort of demand and supply within demand and supply out of which a better market emerges, and performance of that market allow us to financially speculate the rest. Of course it goes the other way too. It is also necessary to note that the market standard is necessarily the scale, rather the scales allow us to award the crown on the serving ruler. As such no similar such or alternative such crown is possible, unless it is a rebel group threatning the Monarch. But if the succeed...and however they succeed, we can at least strip the crown to proclaim 'long live the king'. The philosophy of one regnal market is the only way I think, we can explain the usefulness of US dollars and its position as the Benchmark of the world and heThe only difference is that this king/Queen is a self sacrificing king, who rules by the function of its services. And the pikes on that Crown are made of markets of the world all composing themselves as the world markets. If there is any attempt on the so-called Bench mark and this case US dollars, it will be a question of crash of the international markets. Europe beware. For that reason, whatever happens to the overall US market and the dollars, it might have a direct and indirect effect on the overall markets of the world. By that we can say that strong dollars as a position on the world will definitely yield poor pricing of the crude oil in the world As I mentioned early, when there is two common factors such a 'interest rate' decline and Crude oil decline we shall face the same problem we faced last year, since no significant stimulus for speculative finances are likely to exist.


To become an expert on the crisis of the Jimmy Carter era 78-82 era is to have written very seriously on the subjet and since I have not personal done any useful doctorate on the subject of 81/82 crisis of the world, I am not very convinced that enoug eyebrows would be raised on the approaching economic malaise of the world. But attention ought to be made on what happened to the world in 1981 and 82 when the interest rate was not in effect and when the US dollar was also a strong mold. A strong dollar mold seriously mean weak currencies of the oil rich economies, especially third world countries. The chain reaction of what happens when we have little or no effective interest rate in the world and short falls of crude oil price is that the world sankr into deep economic uncertainty. This was the case in 1982, at least in my current estimate. For a world still recovering from last yea's problems, there is need to be careful about staying to long on no interest rate and weak crude oil prices on the back of a strong dollar.



CAPM is called Capital price asset management. It concerns new ways of measuring what is happening in the world of asset pricing and value investing, which is significant in determining the range of business opportunity and inflation and may not take the role of other indicators in the market. If Robert H. Parks, Ph.D, Sam Nakagama, Gary Shilling are proved to be right, these co-incident indicators such as (1) income (2)production (3) sales (4) gross domestic product are not very great indicators, then we must not whole heartedly rely on what these things are telling us in today's inflationary tact, neither should too much emphasis be placed on the reversive index of Nikkon and Yen over the US bond market. More attention should be placed on the rest of the world, given especially the rise of the emerging markets in the world and what role they are likely to play in 2010 in the world-third world. In a sense, the support for strong dollars is helping for now, but the new year should look the part of increasing the U.S interest rate irrespective of the market data and we hang the hope that enough indicator can highlight the path of the raise and the very direction.


The fungible growth of US economy is a primary concern especially the very new and rigid invention of Government rules in financing, such rules may only serve to complicate the powers of Treasury which interfer with the market-an interference that is not due the Reserve. Yet attention on these very policy on the growth of the world market and its stability, should be the primary concern of the Obama's administration and the Federal Reserve.

Iroabuchi Onwuka

'Strong Dollar' paraire for G-7 Nations. Nigerians Beware

By
Iroabuchi Onwuka

The priority indicators, Ted Spread, Vix, Standard Deviation, Dollar Mold, Credit Spread, are giving away the facts that the economy is liquidity prone. Starting with signals on 'Standard Deviation' from last year's America GDP growth of 2% of a standard 4%. I shall argue that information from Futures and Hedge funds of 'June - September' this year suggesting a variance over 1% mean on 4% Standard deviation will show a cash simulation of 0.7 on wend, good for brokers/sellers and other fund of fund managers but not so good for the Treasury. That will suggest that the level of Drawdown by Bond closing in September 09 as per cash for cash reflect added volatility over this 1.25% mean on a probably 2% SD, there is a tendency that the skewness and Kurtosis will agitate at a faster rate forcing at 0.5 and persistent 0.5-0.6, meaning that volatility is likely the case as we approach other tranches in the Bond market. This will also mean that we not only have a enough money in circulation but much of the money is not getting re-invested in the economy, the money is rather moving from one Bank to other banks with a tendency towards Long term priority bond. That attarck formation of US Treasury and the Fed is to astutely provide the spadework on Short terms through WIN projects and other anti-inflation measures more important of which is Strong Dollar Mold.

Strong dollars is Redline for weak currencies in third world economies. Nigerian Naira is gonna get hammered as we approach December. Nigerian Naira is seriously depended on what happens to US dollars. If the move is strong driven, it becomes a warning signal for Nigerians tomind their books on the varying impact of rising dollars. The spiral case of the November 08 incident and the indigent effort of the former Nigerian Chairman Charlse Soludo in buying into the Naira through excess deposit of the dollars will re-occur if the Nigerian bankers association and their reps do not heed the signs from the G-7 meeting. In a sense, they are saying that We (G-7) under the umbrella on the dollar will push ahead because we have to and because of the problems of receipt from American IOUs several years ago. The trouble of inflation on the Nigerian national economy is still too much to permit any sensible littoral from Sanusi, his attention ought to be placed on what must be done to prevent the sure collapse of the Nigerian unit of exchange. The dollars is getting the cubic measure for interest rate and evidently as we speak, the Feds may not have fully discovered the point of Cubic Pendulum versus Time to implement any form of interest rate.

Many market analyst however believe that .25 raise will put the US economy over 5% this year alone, which is inflationary to the curve and hunker on the long term priority of the country's Bond Market. That the US FEDs are still holding their fire on the interest rate should mean that a lot of currency jobs must in still catching attention and the position on what to do, both long and short and strong and weak, is expected to occupy the time of most clearing houses of the world. When such part of interest rate in the US begin to add, there is very little resistance under developed economies will do, especially oil countries like Nigeria which has so-far suffered with the crisis that evinced its weight in the world last year. The only probably hedge we can hope for Nigeria and Nigerians is the act of watching the FEDS versus the Euro, when the rate begins to up, there is a chance for weaker options, and right before the Bond tranches of Europe due next year, Nigerian Central Bank should escape with more borrowing from the FEDS and the very cheap Europe. I mean more borrowing on per rate as a Billion Euro, which the option of blocking the 7 biilion transfer of international currencies to Nigeria afterwards. In many ways, the lending option of Nigeria given the current drama in the world is to be placed around the Europe as a point and forward for Dollars. With Nigerian finance minister, Mansur Muktah, on monday stating that the Federal Government will inject 2 Billion dollars into the Nigeria economy, the bad news is entirely out on the long term given the baby weight of Nigerian Bond market as more signals the ministers could point to a more liquid inflationary Nigeria market.



This afternoon on the Bloomberg Radio, reports came in on the interview with Jean Claude Trishe, showing that he is in favor a strong dollar as we head to the end of year. The mainpoint of the report is that Jean Claude Trishe, Benanke, Geithner, are particularly in favor of strong dollars. Information reaching us through the world bank and IMF meeting in Istanbul is that the financial ministers are very particular about certain rule to be implemented by US government, a position that is entirely Treasury, 'executive' in rendition and proffers a war with the more 'legislative' Federal Reserves of the world. What we are however learning is that international banking and activity in terms of loans and loaning between banks may shown soem signs of life in them. If the signals are right, Europe should be favored. The weight of world responsibility is shifted on the dollars and might mean the weakness of Euro by default. Shortfalls on Euro could provide a path for re-payment of the bad loans made to these foreign third world countries, some of which were down right illegal. The problem is not the legality of the loans but on the impact that such funding or funds of funding (which is really the case) would have on these third world countries. Crude oil driven economies are most likely to get the first punch, oil opens the window for international businesses yet it closes them just as fast, as easily as oil prices are expected to drop by way of strong dollars and a weakening of Euro.