Book Title; The world after oil. The Shifting Axis of Power and Wealth.
Author; Bruce NussBaum
Published By; Simon and Schuster, New York, NY. 1983.
ISBN; 0-671-44571-5
Language; English
Pagination; 319
Review; Iroabuchi Onwuka
Introduction.
The book is arguable prophetic given the current sales issue of GM and the automobile industry. The book deals seriously on the changing dynamics of power and wealth through technology and how the advances in science and technology, especially Medical sciences has made life easier for people and generated wealth for the champions. The American influence in the world was due to its pivotal position as the oil magnet of the world. It achieved this reputation in the world through the power of oil, but the rise of OPEC as a trading block, paraded to the world by 'Swiss bankers' and new technology not only changed the price of crude oil, it raised the game of crude oil price to a very new level. The price of that endeavour was the attempt at alternative energy and technology which the author is basically arguing represented the new world. In a sense, a new world in the 80's was emerging as a counter weight to oil and as such the pioneers of any new technology in world or newer advances in technology were laying the foundations for a new world altogether.
The book traces the root of new world power to alternative energy and information technology, emaniating from countries like Europe and Japan, with Russia seeking to change their new attitude towards Robots. Other frontliners of that world in the 80's was a country like Japan and their intent on technology which has harried away the like of Kodac into holes of esponiage on very extensive FBI files, and from a well of an emerging US market driven to core by mostly data market, a quake in ground movement is felt allover the world in the 80's.
Body
Point of correction, this book is nothing about oil. It is nothing about the growing competition in the world as at 83, the book does not encourage any form of escape from reality, that oil then and now is matter too great for common market, rather the book is about the power of dumping the extensive reliance on oil. The world as at the early part of the 80's was still used to power new advances in technology which were mainly mechanical and rely on oil. But that world was getting old by 1982. In leaps and bounds, the world has gotten away from the huge emphasis that was placed on machination and oil. In a sense, the book had been written as a 'boom' or 'doomsday' prophecy on the shifting ground of world market power from Crude oil, which represented all sorts of power and which the author argues against the newer realities of world technology.
There was a tendency towards information system which was foremostly led by a certain enterpreneur, Steve Jobs. There was IBM, Cisco, and other American companies that were focusing their research mainly on information technology. In 1983, the World history and Sciences were just waking up to newer realities of discovery. So rapid had been those newer breakthroughs that the whole lifestyle of information system which was still far from many Americans and the rest of the world, had deepen, complicating the human of fear of technology that was eventually recognised as cyberphobia. There was the cyberworld of technology whose primary circle of data minning had set the stage for the future and was intent of remaining the same.
There was also the Robots to consider, and according to the book, the world was guzzling away its energy and "in an era of high priced energy, robots meant higher productivity, lower costs, and even better quality." The price of oil at the inception of OPEC moved from $2.10 to about $13 in 1979. Perhaps Bruce Nussbaum was right that "by raising the price of energy so sharply and so quickly, OPEC transformed the entire base of world economy. By increasing the price of oil fifteen folds in less than a decade, after nearly a century of stable cheap energy, OPEC changed the technological foundations of Western society and set in motion vast social and political changes that are now coming into focus". We can guess that the author is implying the fact that shifts in oil power bases and control, led to new frontiers of technology and new appetite in sciences.
It was also observed in the book that the world of Cybernomics once all American have yielded some ground to Europe and Japan. In fact, Russia in 1983 led the world on many fronts of war technology, began to tune their attention to information technology, sharing with Americans who were doing their own bit mainly in terms of 'C & C' computer and communication and in terms of genetic engineering. In terms of network and communication Russia was very backward at least on head to head match with the world and with Europe. The major area of importance was Robots which were destined to gradually replace the workmanship of human resource. Alchohol played itself out in Russia as a disease, and that meant much trouble for the working population of Russia. The country was still very isolated and by that issue of job creation and manpower basic to communist societies, Russia had little reasons to consider Robotics as replacement for humans, and if they accomplished this with 'Unimates' Robots, they were seriously backwards in information technology and it was going to hurt them strategically in the future.
The author used several examples to illustrate the power of technology in the modern world, citing for instance the use of information system in the Isreali war against Lebanon in 1982. Lebanese Russian made SAM (Surface to Air Missiles) were completely destroyed by Isreal before the war even began. That incident raised the question of new age technology that the world was getting stormed by systems of information that made the unimaginable possible through its electronic feedback. The author also cited the example of Telegram, an information dispatch technology which by itself is a breakthrough, given the advances in technology, had become rlatively obsolete in 1980's, much easier to make the connection between one part of the country to the other. No business man and woman who wish to continue their existence in commercial industry should forgo the new issue of imformation technology. In a sense, emails and Fax machines might be taken for granted today advances but in terms past, it was a thing for upper society.
There was also the quest for better communication in at the time of the writing. Television were set to get a better attention in terms of ECB, an abbreviation for Electronics Communications Box. The impact of information technology in the 1980's was so great that many analyst were willing to bait their career on the future of American banking system, where it is believed that in near future Americans can buy and sell products without living their houses and have a securitized access to their bank acount, from which payments are made. To many Americans then, this was insane since the idea of electronic payment much more popular today was still limited in scope and in hindsight, it posed all kinds of challenges to other semi government controlled American businesses. Yet the book cited that Citicorp, the 'holding company for Citibank' had private communication agency within their companies and so did Texas instrument and IBM. These companies had very useful information mining data that kept them ahead of the world but in the breakthroughs of information network in the 80's, these companies will have let go of the monopoly of private network world.
Data Minning in America has been a center of gravity for information related agency. In terms of US Treasury advisorial and former Central intellingence agents, data mining and storage is Americas greatest security weapon. That world of security was in the 80's also changing from entirely mechanized arms to wars that can be fought with digital computers. Silicon Valley in California for the most part became the center of excellence in computer science and gradually adapted itself to the center of information minning. Silicon Valley also attracted the greatest minds of that era and became home to technology giants who cared more for themselves and themselves alone than the rest of the country. Such idea of having an area entirely dedicated to an industry played out its huge dividend in output and in excellence.
The role of an academic institution in nurturing the breakhroughs in sciences and technology have long lived the reality of everyday Americans. American institution for sciences and technology like Berkeley and MIT, have added their degree of discipline to the world of science.
To further buttress the example we can refer to the book's quotation that "from Stanford, Berkeley and Caltech has come a rush of scientist to set up Cetus, Eugenics, and other tiny biotech companies. On the East coast, the Cambridge area of Boston, home to Route 128 and its myriad Computer companies, is now a hotbed of new bioengineering activity."
Breakthroughs in drilling and maping out areas of crude oil had been started through the university and then the rest of the world. The connection between American Universities and industries have always remained the secret of sucess for the Americans. Just like the advances in Petroluem and Crude oil were made possible by studies in the Universities, these Institutions
were also pioneering breakthroughs in other areas unrelated to oil. For instance information technology and T.V communication and Bioengineering were to conform to major patterns of business administration and unmanned Robots replaced human hands in Major industries in the world.
Commentary and Conclusion
It is import to note that this book, which is an 80's example of Thomas Friedman's "World is Flat" of 2005, did not only intend on providing information about businesses, newer technology and Robot, rather a world as we know it that was gradually surplanted by man made. Like 'Friedman' of 2001 'Lexus and Olive tree', this book 'The worl After oil', a forerunner of the above books, looks at that changing dynamics of the world and how those changing dynamics of technology dictated the world power.
If the book is tireless informed, it does not mean that the very author himself is an economist, neither can it be said that the author understood the nature of U.S Banking and Investment.
The huge expansionary nature of Japan's economy may or may have been influenced by American investment banking. By that, it is possible to argue that Japan's technological improvement represented everything that is mainly American in essence, it represents the common grounds of international banking and finances.
Despite the deficit in the America and the rising tide of manufacturing around the world, emerging economies in the 80's world were bound to simultaneously support the American economy. In the argument about the power of technology improving lives could be the case, when in times past, there was a balance of power and market forces were subjected to what group produced the larger size of production. We have however come to understand that productive capacity of any country should not entirely reflect its market hence its value.
Rather, production curve of any civil society should be made to graph in such a way as to suggest the 'fundamental value' of the existing market.
If he has a prediction for future years, then there is a tendency to evaluate his theory in the context of electronic age video games and in terms of Network that has taken a whole new color since the 80's. As much as crude oil has played a major hand in determining the direction of US dollars, it can also help to sponsor new frontiers of venture captalism to which Americans had more than once demonstrated leadership. It is this unique possibility of converting much profit from oil to business and using 'cash receivables' of any country in lending that such wonderful frontiers of technology can be made possible.
The major lesson from the book is not that people should fear new advances in all classes of technology rather, emphasis must be placed on advances in sciences and technology and the institution or nurture grounds for it, which will not only solve the problems of dependence on foreign oil but will serve to creat the path for future advances in anyother field like Medicine and so on. The shift on the dependence of oil for business or other growth technology is seriously inevitable. The natural question is what to do with that shift in technology.
Thus we can conclude this book with this example "in 1975, just two years after Dr. Charles Boyer of University of California at Berkeley and Dr. Stanley N. Cohen of Stanford discovered the technique for gene splicing, Boyer met with a venture capitalist to set up the new company, Genetech, to commercialize the budding new technology" of gene splicing and eventually hormone treatment.
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Friday, July 24, 2009
'Power and Stability in Nigeria' By Bretton L. Henry
BookTitle; Power and Stability
Author; Bretton L. Henry
Publisher; F. A Praeger, New York, N.Y. 1962
Pagination; 208
Language; English
Review; Iroabuchi Onwuka
Introduction.
The book is about Nigerian political formation and the forces that mitigated the general stability of that independent Nigeria. There was much hope for the new Nigeria Republic in 1960, and the realised call of Nnamdi Azikiwe to self rule took on a new meaning in 1960. The early Nigerian politicians did not know what to do with the country, they were not sure how to begin the new Nigerian Republic, neither could they say whether or not the Nigeria union of states was ever going to make it. Fom the very beginning, the country seem to hold their breath with hope that time will offer new meaning to the country.
The author seem to reflect his experiences in matters concerning the impact of colonialism in a Nigerian fragile union, and how the weight of the British colonialism so to speak, seem to fracture the 'power and stability' of Nigeria. The author Bretton L. Henry spent the first two years of new Nigerian Republic in Nigeria, recording what he considered useful in terms of data collection. In those two years, he served as an eye witness to matters arising from the whole political condition evident in the turbulent years of Nigerian independence and thereafter. He recorded the problem on the new Nigeria with a tendency to Lessellian Theory, where much of his theory concerning the irregularites of a new republic seem to hang.
Body.
The role of leadership qualities in Nigeria at its early stage seem now forgotten, but in this book, the author may have reminded us of the urgency of the problems that faced Africa in 1960's and in Nigeria enough leadership quality was the essential part of the whole problem. The author pointed out that despite the need to emback on the betterness of the Nigerians concerned, there was serious problems of leadership stemming from its member parties and tribes. In essence, Nigeria had much more of the problem of leadership than the movement it represented and the author, L. Henry who was himself an American, was not sure of the very survival of Nigeria since the political power bases and Party systems, were only tribal but regional as well.
He observed that Nigerians were living the illusion that power in the country was ethically 'diffuse' but in reality the whole theme was seriously misleading. Not only were political parties set on the platform of tribe, there were other chieftain elements murking the waters for all Nigerian. In fact, religious rulers in Northern Nigeria infact prodded the said political parties.
In the book we read for instance that "in the North especially, the leaders who control the land, the means of production of wealth, and the channels of distribution are too closely identified with imperial rule to subject themselves and their group successfully to a thorough political metamorphosis." This had been his formal way of arguing on the fact that tribal as well religious heads in Nigeria, especially in the Northern Nigeria, were translating their local rulership into political dictatorship.
In this book, there is much to be learnt Nigeria in its early years, especially the very constitution of the country and deomgraphics. The book provided a first hand account of the condition of life in Nigeria some of which is nolonger true. For instance, the book did show that the Northern Nigeria were made up of mainly Hausa and Fulani, many of them with very illiterate background. The West of Nigeria were made up of people with as much education as schools permitted but the rise of education is the East was a phenomenom. Though overated, seem to have been a shining light for the country and care was to be taken if the political weight of Nigeria does not fall squarely on the South alone, yet greater fear was in the North were oligarchist that spurred the North before the English, had refused to dismantle the institution.
Bretton L. Henry tend to suggest that long after the English left that there was still serious power construction in the hands of the power players and the parties they represent. These parties acting as one complete whole were actually puppets for the very English. Nigerian leaders seem to have inherented much power from their colonials, and the country of 40 million people at the time of the book had much to deal contend with. The first politicians were sure of their own ability, there were not certain what that ability really meant nor the tribe will be asked to abandon their own identity.
L. Henry seem to indicate the evolution of English policies towards independence had so much to do with the cost of maintaining such expensive colonies around the world. In Nigeria, there was a great number of educated people seeking to move into the ranks of politicians and who in times past, had offered their own degree of loyalty to the country. L. Henry suggested that the rush to grant British colonies their independence were not acts of benevolence, rather the practical matter of maintaining an English rule much longer than necessary in provinces which has taken a very human face. The structure for economic business were still very English and visible, they were not dismantled at all, a fact which which the locals were aware of, an incident which may have forced the Nigerian locals to call for a communist experiment.
The drift towards communism didn't last long, and the those who maintained the communist agenda easily became unpopular. In the years leading to independence of Nigeria, the English used favoritism to conduct the appointment of office. Such act could not have been avoided since Nigeria before independence had been very restive and neither the English nor their business men could entertain any form of challenge. In the end, the institutions of money and wealth left over to lobbied friends of colonials led to ranks of corruption which was perpetuated in the Northern Nigeria. In a sense, the colonials normalised the habit of currying favor and according L. Henry it sought became perpetuated.
Commentary/Conclusion
The forementioned episodes were means employed by the author to archieve his view of Lesselian theory which he elaborated by saying that "in the more highly developed free societies substantive changes are brought about by forces operating outside the confines of parliament in open economic competition." 1962 Nigeria was a country that was still surving due to the impact of British society on it and that impact brough several degree of good and corruption. The Nigerians were also aware of the inevitable decay of their economy and country were acting to it. In essence, the foreign influences were necessary but the residual effect of such influences can be counter productive and in country with vast many resources, the level of training on the ground may or may no carry the thick demands of the country.
According to the book, the federal minister of Economics Development Ibid, stated that "expatriate firms and individuals who engage in our country's distributive trade and road transport business are extremely powerful, influential, and virtually control the economy of our country..."
That the Federal ministry of commerce and industry in Nigeria noted, that "the economy of our country, strictly speaking, is not in our hands. Over 70 percent of our overseas trade is controlled by forces over which we have no control"...Ibid, (November 16, 1961). Even as we write, these forces which were briefly checked by the military episode in Nigeria are still very much active and may still retain the business of the trade route since the English left in 1960.
The book also mentioned a very acid comment by one Senator Nwafo Orizu who was the senate president until the military took over, that "the trend is to call every company a Nigerian company. That is, somebody is appointed from outside, a Nigerian, one foolish man, who is usually given a big appointment, and a big salary, so that they can call the company Nigerian. He has nothing to with the company".
Last but not least, Chief Obafemi Awolowo in a speech given in the House of Representatives, November 29. 1961(Col.3527) 1961/2 section, also noted on this foreign manipulation of Nigeria which was over bearing on the country that "because they control the bulk of our financial institutions, they accordingly influence, for good or ill, the availability....of adequate capital and credit and their eventual direction"
All these government officials and their agency including Tafawa Balewa, were all pointing to the problem of Nigeria in 1960 through 62, that the Nigeria was economically still in the hands of Britain. Everything from civil finances and transport services were in their hands. The rate of unemployment in Nigeria and the showing of corruption of a national level, the interception of judicial authority and the repeal of legislated laws by Sarduna of Sokoto may have altogether given wings to Nigerian military coup in 1966 and perhaps the civil war shortly after. In my opinion, the Nigerian civil war may have put an end to the English financial network and control of Nigeria in 1966. From this view of probable losses and need to win something back, Britain couldn't have sided the Biafrans.
Author; Bretton L. Henry
Publisher; F. A Praeger, New York, N.Y. 1962
Pagination; 208
Language; English
Review; Iroabuchi Onwuka
Introduction.
The book is about Nigerian political formation and the forces that mitigated the general stability of that independent Nigeria. There was much hope for the new Nigeria Republic in 1960, and the realised call of Nnamdi Azikiwe to self rule took on a new meaning in 1960. The early Nigerian politicians did not know what to do with the country, they were not sure how to begin the new Nigerian Republic, neither could they say whether or not the Nigeria union of states was ever going to make it. Fom the very beginning, the country seem to hold their breath with hope that time will offer new meaning to the country.
The author seem to reflect his experiences in matters concerning the impact of colonialism in a Nigerian fragile union, and how the weight of the British colonialism so to speak, seem to fracture the 'power and stability' of Nigeria. The author Bretton L. Henry spent the first two years of new Nigerian Republic in Nigeria, recording what he considered useful in terms of data collection. In those two years, he served as an eye witness to matters arising from the whole political condition evident in the turbulent years of Nigerian independence and thereafter. He recorded the problem on the new Nigeria with a tendency to Lessellian Theory, where much of his theory concerning the irregularites of a new republic seem to hang.
Body.
The role of leadership qualities in Nigeria at its early stage seem now forgotten, but in this book, the author may have reminded us of the urgency of the problems that faced Africa in 1960's and in Nigeria enough leadership quality was the essential part of the whole problem. The author pointed out that despite the need to emback on the betterness of the Nigerians concerned, there was serious problems of leadership stemming from its member parties and tribes. In essence, Nigeria had much more of the problem of leadership than the movement it represented and the author, L. Henry who was himself an American, was not sure of the very survival of Nigeria since the political power bases and Party systems, were only tribal but regional as well.
He observed that Nigerians were living the illusion that power in the country was ethically 'diffuse' but in reality the whole theme was seriously misleading. Not only were political parties set on the platform of tribe, there were other chieftain elements murking the waters for all Nigerian. In fact, religious rulers in Northern Nigeria infact prodded the said political parties.
In the book we read for instance that "in the North especially, the leaders who control the land, the means of production of wealth, and the channels of distribution are too closely identified with imperial rule to subject themselves and their group successfully to a thorough political metamorphosis." This had been his formal way of arguing on the fact that tribal as well religious heads in Nigeria, especially in the Northern Nigeria, were translating their local rulership into political dictatorship.
In this book, there is much to be learnt Nigeria in its early years, especially the very constitution of the country and deomgraphics. The book provided a first hand account of the condition of life in Nigeria some of which is nolonger true. For instance, the book did show that the Northern Nigeria were made up of mainly Hausa and Fulani, many of them with very illiterate background. The West of Nigeria were made up of people with as much education as schools permitted but the rise of education is the East was a phenomenom. Though overated, seem to have been a shining light for the country and care was to be taken if the political weight of Nigeria does not fall squarely on the South alone, yet greater fear was in the North were oligarchist that spurred the North before the English, had refused to dismantle the institution.
Bretton L. Henry tend to suggest that long after the English left that there was still serious power construction in the hands of the power players and the parties they represent. These parties acting as one complete whole were actually puppets for the very English. Nigerian leaders seem to have inherented much power from their colonials, and the country of 40 million people at the time of the book had much to deal contend with. The first politicians were sure of their own ability, there were not certain what that ability really meant nor the tribe will be asked to abandon their own identity.
L. Henry seem to indicate the evolution of English policies towards independence had so much to do with the cost of maintaining such expensive colonies around the world. In Nigeria, there was a great number of educated people seeking to move into the ranks of politicians and who in times past, had offered their own degree of loyalty to the country. L. Henry suggested that the rush to grant British colonies their independence were not acts of benevolence, rather the practical matter of maintaining an English rule much longer than necessary in provinces which has taken a very human face. The structure for economic business were still very English and visible, they were not dismantled at all, a fact which which the locals were aware of, an incident which may have forced the Nigerian locals to call for a communist experiment.
The drift towards communism didn't last long, and the those who maintained the communist agenda easily became unpopular. In the years leading to independence of Nigeria, the English used favoritism to conduct the appointment of office. Such act could not have been avoided since Nigeria before independence had been very restive and neither the English nor their business men could entertain any form of challenge. In the end, the institutions of money and wealth left over to lobbied friends of colonials led to ranks of corruption which was perpetuated in the Northern Nigeria. In a sense, the colonials normalised the habit of currying favor and according L. Henry it sought became perpetuated.
Commentary/Conclusion
The forementioned episodes were means employed by the author to archieve his view of Lesselian theory which he elaborated by saying that "in the more highly developed free societies substantive changes are brought about by forces operating outside the confines of parliament in open economic competition." 1962 Nigeria was a country that was still surving due to the impact of British society on it and that impact brough several degree of good and corruption. The Nigerians were also aware of the inevitable decay of their economy and country were acting to it. In essence, the foreign influences were necessary but the residual effect of such influences can be counter productive and in country with vast many resources, the level of training on the ground may or may no carry the thick demands of the country.
According to the book, the federal minister of Economics Development Ibid, stated that "expatriate firms and individuals who engage in our country's distributive trade and road transport business are extremely powerful, influential, and virtually control the economy of our country..."
That the Federal ministry of commerce and industry in Nigeria noted, that "the economy of our country, strictly speaking, is not in our hands. Over 70 percent of our overseas trade is controlled by forces over which we have no control"...Ibid, (November 16, 1961). Even as we write, these forces which were briefly checked by the military episode in Nigeria are still very much active and may still retain the business of the trade route since the English left in 1960.
The book also mentioned a very acid comment by one Senator Nwafo Orizu who was the senate president until the military took over, that "the trend is to call every company a Nigerian company. That is, somebody is appointed from outside, a Nigerian, one foolish man, who is usually given a big appointment, and a big salary, so that they can call the company Nigerian. He has nothing to with the company".
Last but not least, Chief Obafemi Awolowo in a speech given in the House of Representatives, November 29. 1961(Col.3527) 1961/2 section, also noted on this foreign manipulation of Nigeria which was over bearing on the country that "because they control the bulk of our financial institutions, they accordingly influence, for good or ill, the availability....of adequate capital and credit and their eventual direction"
All these government officials and their agency including Tafawa Balewa, were all pointing to the problem of Nigeria in 1960 through 62, that the Nigeria was economically still in the hands of Britain. Everything from civil finances and transport services were in their hands. The rate of unemployment in Nigeria and the showing of corruption of a national level, the interception of judicial authority and the repeal of legislated laws by Sarduna of Sokoto may have altogether given wings to Nigerian military coup in 1966 and perhaps the civil war shortly after. In my opinion, the Nigerian civil war may have put an end to the English financial network and control of Nigeria in 1966. From this view of probable losses and need to win something back, Britain couldn't have sided the Biafrans.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
The Funk goes on, U.S treasuries, a peculating Dollar and the decline of crude oil prices.
By
Iroabuchi Onwuka
The funk goes on. Barely six months ago, the world was heralding crisis like no other. The Dollar took its strength to the rest of the world, and there was massive implosion of currencies that pegged its success on the performance of Crude oil. The crude oil prices as at July 2008 had sold at various record prices, going at some point as much $150 a barrel. It was way over priced and it was a question of time that the market understood the consequence. Six month ago, at least on the 31st of December 2008, the Junks were performing at 22% more than the Federal reserve, part of the reason had to do with the Japanese Yen and the Forex, but much of it had to do with sudden nose dive of crude oil price leading to the end of the year. From the lowest fall in over decade, crude oil prices from the beginning of 2009 has gradually moved up. It is possible that the same scenario is gradually appearing after June 2009, and as we approach the September dead zone for crude oil, attention once more is placed on what is happening to US Treasury, the strenght of the dollars and crude oil.
There were other factors that might have deepened the issue of crude oil decline in June. One of which was that the Chinese and their Indian cohort where backing off from much acquisition of crude, an action which at some point spooked the heavy sale of crude oil. Second problem was the money function of the Euro in terms of crude oil prices. That currency is set in such a way as to inversely conform to the performance of US currency. They call it correlation and in the years leading to American strong dollar policy, the weak dollar forced a strengthening of Euro and a peculation of crude oil price, priced in to Forex and bifurcation. Third to this factor was the tilt of U.S fed reserve towards a quarter of a percent in interest rate, a move no one in the history of the United States has found enough reason to do. The position of US federal reserve in terms of interest rate could have only forced a strengthening of the U.S dollar which sent a lasting chill over the rest of oil dependent countries of the world.
The question has always been what the U.S Treasury had to do with short falls in crude oil? The answer is not that complicated on the condition that nothing in the world can be baited against Crude oil than the very U.S dollar. Until fairly recently, much of the world has bought and traded oil with enough eyes on the US dollars, the movement of US currency only tend to rise and fall given the action of the Feds and the US Treasury but in reality it is the attention on done oil that is by far more important than the Treasury, and that attention can have have its day in deflating the strict attention of US currency. It is not that complicated a process, it is more the outcome of the Forex and the telling weight of the world currencies and international valuation than what is happening inside American market. But of course market prices can check and balance out each other and the whole discipline is the necessity of risk management for Porfolio group.
Crude oil had been climbing for sometime cracking @75 a barrel. It is necessary that the price continue upwards for some profits to be possible. If we take into accounts last year's losses, it is needs to understand the inevitability of an upward trend in Crude and oil prices. With 0.25% percent interest rate, and the spend attitude of US Government, the fear of excess liquidity nestle entirely on the rate of inflation and not its deflationary tact. The end game of these seemless derivative and 'hedge' is that crude oil is baited for the shots on any form of inflation. The target for US policy markers is commodity for sure, and that is only ensured by crippling the upward trend of the major bait for common market; the crude oil. If that can only be a lasting indication of a new form of standard, then it should become clear enough that as the year wears on, attempts by the US Treasury to emphasis a strong dollar is all set to discourage the 'irrational exuberance' June - September of crude oil peculation, and to limit the profitability of rangers who go as back as December/January for shorts.
All is set for a rally on crude oil. Those seeking a 'miserly some' should still go on till September. In essence it is still not late in the game to 'enter the dragon' in crude oil but it is better if the money and size of portfolio is little more than average with useful exist strategy after Q3,09.
The interest of Russia in many parts of the world in terms of oil and gas, the excess capacity of oil around the world waiting to disembark and the very strong dollars means that the oil market will tow a natural lead until next very year. In all likelihood still, the Forex and currency market, can still play itself out in terms of capacity. If the Japanese Yen is Strong as we rap up its earning season in August, it will be looking to empty its excess capacity of the dollars, that will briefly ease off the pressure of banking institution. Trading through the Yang might elevate the export potential of Asia but briefly, the movement of world market strangely false on Asian market.
Iroabuchi Onwuka
The funk goes on. Barely six months ago, the world was heralding crisis like no other. The Dollar took its strength to the rest of the world, and there was massive implosion of currencies that pegged its success on the performance of Crude oil. The crude oil prices as at July 2008 had sold at various record prices, going at some point as much $150 a barrel. It was way over priced and it was a question of time that the market understood the consequence. Six month ago, at least on the 31st of December 2008, the Junks were performing at 22% more than the Federal reserve, part of the reason had to do with the Japanese Yen and the Forex, but much of it had to do with sudden nose dive of crude oil price leading to the end of the year. From the lowest fall in over decade, crude oil prices from the beginning of 2009 has gradually moved up. It is possible that the same scenario is gradually appearing after June 2009, and as we approach the September dead zone for crude oil, attention once more is placed on what is happening to US Treasury, the strenght of the dollars and crude oil.
There were other factors that might have deepened the issue of crude oil decline in June. One of which was that the Chinese and their Indian cohort where backing off from much acquisition of crude, an action which at some point spooked the heavy sale of crude oil. Second problem was the money function of the Euro in terms of crude oil prices. That currency is set in such a way as to inversely conform to the performance of US currency. They call it correlation and in the years leading to American strong dollar policy, the weak dollar forced a strengthening of Euro and a peculation of crude oil price, priced in to Forex and bifurcation. Third to this factor was the tilt of U.S fed reserve towards a quarter of a percent in interest rate, a move no one in the history of the United States has found enough reason to do. The position of US federal reserve in terms of interest rate could have only forced a strengthening of the U.S dollar which sent a lasting chill over the rest of oil dependent countries of the world.
The question has always been what the U.S Treasury had to do with short falls in crude oil? The answer is not that complicated on the condition that nothing in the world can be baited against Crude oil than the very U.S dollar. Until fairly recently, much of the world has bought and traded oil with enough eyes on the US dollars, the movement of US currency only tend to rise and fall given the action of the Feds and the US Treasury but in reality it is the attention on done oil that is by far more important than the Treasury, and that attention can have have its day in deflating the strict attention of US currency. It is not that complicated a process, it is more the outcome of the Forex and the telling weight of the world currencies and international valuation than what is happening inside American market. But of course market prices can check and balance out each other and the whole discipline is the necessity of risk management for Porfolio group.
Crude oil had been climbing for sometime cracking @75 a barrel. It is necessary that the price continue upwards for some profits to be possible. If we take into accounts last year's losses, it is needs to understand the inevitability of an upward trend in Crude and oil prices. With 0.25% percent interest rate, and the spend attitude of US Government, the fear of excess liquidity nestle entirely on the rate of inflation and not its deflationary tact. The end game of these seemless derivative and 'hedge' is that crude oil is baited for the shots on any form of inflation. The target for US policy markers is commodity for sure, and that is only ensured by crippling the upward trend of the major bait for common market; the crude oil. If that can only be a lasting indication of a new form of standard, then it should become clear enough that as the year wears on, attempts by the US Treasury to emphasis a strong dollar is all set to discourage the 'irrational exuberance' June - September of crude oil peculation, and to limit the profitability of rangers who go as back as December/January for shorts.
All is set for a rally on crude oil. Those seeking a 'miserly some' should still go on till September. In essence it is still not late in the game to 'enter the dragon' in crude oil but it is better if the money and size of portfolio is little more than average with useful exist strategy after Q3,09.
The interest of Russia in many parts of the world in terms of oil and gas, the excess capacity of oil around the world waiting to disembark and the very strong dollars means that the oil market will tow a natural lead until next very year. In all likelihood still, the Forex and currency market, can still play itself out in terms of capacity. If the Japanese Yen is Strong as we rap up its earning season in August, it will be looking to empty its excess capacity of the dollars, that will briefly ease off the pressure of banking institution. Trading through the Yang might elevate the export potential of Asia but briefly, the movement of world market strangely false on Asian market.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Market Research for Traders by Iroabuchi Onwuka
By Iroabuchi Onwuka
Market has become rocket science. It is now very difficult to conduct any perform questionaire based on what is going in the market today. The real test of any research is the usefulness of the discovery, and many of these researchhead need their 'reserche material' composed mainly of statistics. In fact most successful Market engines and Engineers, have little patients for the outside world and the world of opinion outside facts and figures. You can't talk to these people without direct quote and references. These research groups are either working for their group or are working for themselves. If for instance, Toyota is a good company, it's simply because of serious market research and questionaire that make up much of their service reps. GM conduct their own research but it is not as strong as a Toyota and GM follow very little of what the customers are saying. In day trading, this is also the case, and given the temperature of online trading, it is seriously useful to stay tuned to your very personal observation and researches. This is the theme of many market analyst and I seriously encourage many companies in US to do the same and not just that many in US and Europe, but companies around the world and Nigerian.
My inspiration to write this essay, begins with what I read recently in a book by David S. Nassar, titled 'Rules of the Trade', published in 2001 by McGraw Hill Companies, Inc. The book is truly full of "indispensable insights for online Profit" with a commanding foreword by William Lupien. What seem very significant to me is the mention of Research and use of Research in day trading. Mr Nasser who has been a very long Trader shared his personal views on the merits of self conduct and personal research. He made references to his personal life and years as a day trader, adding the necessity to "create a writter plan" and to stick with it. Here I intended to quote much of his writing of research and from the book.
P.76
"it is imperative to trade strong stocks that are well suited to your training style. Quality research is the key that opens the door to ensuring that you are always trading stocks that yield the greatest chance for success....using a sound methodolgy is crucial. One approach I suggest is the top - down approach"
Traders like Nasser explain 'top down approach' as the process that involves "taking a macroview of the market and identifying those stocks within major industry group that show signs of strenght and activity." The 'novice' trader like the best of us can use this process to help himself or herself in the market.
Nasser continued that "the top down approach essentially starts at a baseline of the available stocks and uses individually tailored creteria to figure out the vast majority of these securities from consideration." For instance, the Dow, the S & P 100, the S & P 500, or the Nasdaq 100 and so on can used to improve your management portfolio and trade option. David Nasser continued in p.78 that "as a beginning place for searching for tradable stocks. The S & P 500 is often selected because (a) it includes both listed and over the counter stocks and (b) the vast number of securities within the index virtually guarantees that all industry sectors make up our greater economy will be well represented. Despite the continued dominance of the S&P as a starting ground for selecting stocks, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant growth in terms of its importance to traders."
According to Nasser, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant in start up companies, that it is "now a great place to start finding technology-related stocks that can quickly gather the momentum appealing to short-term traders. As for the Dow, it is unlikely it will provide a significant list of stocks for you to trade; nevertheless, due to its continued importance as the bellwether index and its inclusion of the strongest of the large cap companies, it should still be watched closely as an indicator of overall market health".
"Once you have chosen a major index as a starting ground, analyse which sectors within that index also appeal to your interests (e.g., financials, technology, biotechs, or semiconductor). The Standard & Poor's Web site not only lists each of the stocks within the S&P 500 but also gives a description of each company and the sector and subsector classifications of each
(http://www.spglobal.com/ssindexmain500text.html)."
"Many of you might ask why you need to find sectors that are of particular interest to you, rather than just picking the sector du jour. The reason is passion. If you don't have passion for the industry sector in which the stocks you are about to research reside, then you won't have the desire to actually do the research to the best of your abilities even when you are tired from a full day's work".
"Once you have selected the sectors that appeal to you, re-examine the lists of stocks within that sector. Are these enough stocks within that sector to continue refining your research, orshould you use the sector description to expand the list of stocks within that sector, even if the additional stocks are not within your major index? It is likely that you will have to conduct additional sector research to ffind a full list of stocks within that sector, which you can the continue to narrow down. Several good Web sites provide excellent research about particular groups of stocks that can be used to create a robust list of stocks within each sector, including the following."
Nasser continued with the following example
"http://www.amex.com/ The American Stock Exchange Web Site provide lists of stocks within each of the Select sector S&P Depository Receipts (Select Sector SPDRs) as well as information about the stocks within the various Merrill Lynch & Company Depository Receipts (HOLDRS). These are great sector groupings in which to find stocks within a particular sector.
See http://www.amex.com/structuredeq/holdrs_tth.stm for an example of a listing of securities within an HOLDRS sector."
"www.phlx.com/index.stm The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Website lists the stocks within several sectors, including the closely watched semiconductor sector, thestreet.com Internet sector, and the wireless telecom sector. The S&P Global Website provides a lsiting of the stocks in the S&P index and their sectors. if you have chosen a large sector such as technology, you may need to further narrow your choices to telecom, chiapmakers, box makers, or some other subsector of technology."
Market has become rocket science. It is now very difficult to conduct any perform questionaire based on what is going in the market today. The real test of any research is the usefulness of the discovery, and many of these researchhead need their 'reserche material' composed mainly of statistics. In fact most successful Market engines and Engineers, have little patients for the outside world and the world of opinion outside facts and figures. You can't talk to these people without direct quote and references. These research groups are either working for their group or are working for themselves. If for instance, Toyota is a good company, it's simply because of serious market research and questionaire that make up much of their service reps. GM conduct their own research but it is not as strong as a Toyota and GM follow very little of what the customers are saying. In day trading, this is also the case, and given the temperature of online trading, it is seriously useful to stay tuned to your very personal observation and researches. This is the theme of many market analyst and I seriously encourage many companies in US to do the same and not just that many in US and Europe, but companies around the world and Nigerian.
My inspiration to write this essay, begins with what I read recently in a book by David S. Nassar, titled 'Rules of the Trade', published in 2001 by McGraw Hill Companies, Inc. The book is truly full of "indispensable insights for online Profit" with a commanding foreword by William Lupien. What seem very significant to me is the mention of Research and use of Research in day trading. Mr Nasser who has been a very long Trader shared his personal views on the merits of self conduct and personal research. He made references to his personal life and years as a day trader, adding the necessity to "create a writter plan" and to stick with it. Here I intended to quote much of his writing of research and from the book.
P.76
"it is imperative to trade strong stocks that are well suited to your training style. Quality research is the key that opens the door to ensuring that you are always trading stocks that yield the greatest chance for success....using a sound methodolgy is crucial. One approach I suggest is the top - down approach"
Traders like Nasser explain 'top down approach' as the process that involves "taking a macroview of the market and identifying those stocks within major industry group that show signs of strenght and activity." The 'novice' trader like the best of us can use this process to help himself or herself in the market.
Nasser continued that "the top down approach essentially starts at a baseline of the available stocks and uses individually tailored creteria to figure out the vast majority of these securities from consideration." For instance, the Dow, the S & P 100, the S & P 500, or the Nasdaq 100 and so on can used to improve your management portfolio and trade option. David Nasser continued in p.78 that "as a beginning place for searching for tradable stocks. The S & P 500 is often selected because (a) it includes both listed and over the counter stocks and (b) the vast number of securities within the index virtually guarantees that all industry sectors make up our greater economy will be well represented. Despite the continued dominance of the S&P as a starting ground for selecting stocks, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant growth in terms of its importance to traders."
According to Nasser, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant in start up companies, that it is "now a great place to start finding technology-related stocks that can quickly gather the momentum appealing to short-term traders. As for the Dow, it is unlikely it will provide a significant list of stocks for you to trade; nevertheless, due to its continued importance as the bellwether index and its inclusion of the strongest of the large cap companies, it should still be watched closely as an indicator of overall market health".
"Once you have chosen a major index as a starting ground, analyse which sectors within that index also appeal to your interests (e.g., financials, technology, biotechs, or semiconductor). The Standard & Poor's Web site not only lists each of the stocks within the S&P 500 but also gives a description of each company and the sector and subsector classifications of each
(http://www.spglobal.com/ssindexmain500text.html)."
"Many of you might ask why you need to find sectors that are of particular interest to you, rather than just picking the sector du jour. The reason is passion. If you don't have passion for the industry sector in which the stocks you are about to research reside, then you won't have the desire to actually do the research to the best of your abilities even when you are tired from a full day's work".
"Once you have selected the sectors that appeal to you, re-examine the lists of stocks within that sector. Are these enough stocks within that sector to continue refining your research, orshould you use the sector description to expand the list of stocks within that sector, even if the additional stocks are not within your major index? It is likely that you will have to conduct additional sector research to ffind a full list of stocks within that sector, which you can the continue to narrow down. Several good Web sites provide excellent research about particular groups of stocks that can be used to create a robust list of stocks within each sector, including the following."
Nasser continued with the following example
"http://www.amex.com/ The American Stock Exchange Web Site provide lists of stocks within each of the Select sector S&P Depository Receipts (Select Sector SPDRs) as well as information about the stocks within the various Merrill Lynch & Company Depository Receipts (HOLDRS). These are great sector groupings in which to find stocks within a particular sector.
See http://www.amex.com/structuredeq/holdrs_tth.stm for an example of a listing of securities within an HOLDRS sector."
"www.phlx.com/index.stm The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Website lists the stocks within several sectors, including the closely watched semiconductor sector, thestreet.com Internet sector, and the wireless telecom sector. The S&P Global Website provides a lsiting of the stocks in the S&P index and their sectors. if you have chosen a large sector such as technology, you may need to further narrow your choices to telecom, chiapmakers, box makers, or some other subsector of technology."
Friday, July 3, 2009
The Price of fame, Michael Jackson
The economic significance of the week in question begins and ends with individuals who contributed immensely to the lives of the others, some of whom like Bernie Madoff did away with other people's money and others were held in death by debt. How times never change? The man Jackson, had a terrible banging of all the problem of fame and fortune, which simply include infamy and misfortune. Michael Jackson according to Newspaper of New York held dear the estimated debt of 400 million dollars. But many have problem believing in such debt since the quote came from one source 'Daily News'. Bernie Madoff disgorged people who baited on him over a huge wealth totalling 50 Billion and was sentenced to a 150 years in Jail, but his case seem over shadowed by Jackson's funeral arrangement.
On 25 of June 2009, Michael Jackson, the world renowned Pop was proclaimed dead from Cardiac arrest in his home in Los Angeles, California. He was readying himself for a world wide tour, which was to start with London. Perhaps the complicated nature of the exercise and the problem of divorce and his children's custody may have seriously added to his longing. What a man like Jackson can go through! Not many feel entirely sorry for him, especially African Americans whom he dislocated for a very long time ago. It is possible that his interest in ghouslishly dresscode and pop icon status, and his tilt towards a leverage light skin may be due to his lack of inner self worth and confidence, a hidden side of him, which forced him to return again and again to his immortal youth. In spite of what people he might have done to help the course of the world, it is perhaps right to say that he dislocated the chain from his African American heritage along time ago and it did not help him that much.
In the 1980's Jackson's commercials yielded billions in sales, both from Coca Cola industries and from other commercial groups. Michael Jackson made very little from these commercials especially his world popular "stuck in the middle". He was one of the few that made afro-hair quite popular in the 70's and in the 1982 'thriller' everything broke loose from "funk, Pop, Jazz, disco" etc. The thriller album broke all the records in grammy music awards and the director of the studio album, Quincy Jones, also won several awards. Those directly involved in this 'thriller' album and its aftermath, from US to Africa were instantly rich from patronage of the Album and from salesmanship, but it is easy to see that from that great success in 1982, Michael Jackson could neither surpass his ability nor match his success.
In some reflection, we can say that only few will fail to think well of the guy, but if there is any commercial lesson to learn from this life, it should begin and end with the relevance of a great African American like Michael Jackson, Muhammed Ali, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Ophray Winfrey, Eddie Murphy, Don King, Mike Tyson, George foreman, Evander Hollyfield, Quincy Jones, Bill Cosby, Will Smith, Queen Latifa, Sean 'P.Diddy' John, Russel Simmon, Al Sharpton, T.D Jakes, Cleflo Dollar, Collin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, Maya Angelou, Toni Morison, Clerence Thomas, Barry Bonds, Janet Jackson, Aretha Franklin, Tina Turner, Whitney Houston, Jermaine Jackson, Prince, Eavin 'Magic' Johnson, Jerry Rice, Lawrence Taylor, Charlse Barckley, Jim Brown, Anthony Kevin 'Toni' Dunjy, Kareem Abdul Jabber, Bill Russel, Hank Aaron, Julius Ervin, Spike Lee, Morgan Freeman, Larry Fishbourne, Samuel Jackson, Martin Lawrence, Ving Rhimes, Wesley Snipes, Wayan Brothers, Cuba Gooding Jr., Danny Glover, Forrest Whitaker, Denzel Washington, Ice Cube, Lelia Ali, Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, Funk Flex, Serena Williams, Venus Williams, and latterly, Lebrun James, Will Smith, Kobe Bryant, Curtis '50 cents' Jackson, Bobby Brown, Curry Booker, Beyonce' Knowles, Steve Harvey, Jay-Z, Jamie Foxx, Dave Chappelle, Halle Berry, Dwight Howard, who still form a useful part of the living and who can still help African American society and market.
Then all the current bosses of both New York and US; David Paterson, Barak Obama, should take this reminder of Michael Jackson's early death as an indication to 'must do' for Africa Americans...who should come first in their actions. These are nothing short of great Americans, and contribute to making billions annually for world economic surging markets. Only whites can attempt the list above, there is nothing Hispanic, Indian, Arabic, Ethican White, and so on, or combined that can match this record. The way American society is structured is such that African Americans still make up 90 percents of inmates in prison and constitute American poor. American society is made up of branches but the color of these branches ought to be maintained through patronage of its existing fibre and a flower like Amarylis radiate from inside out. Always from inside.
By Iroabuchi Onwuka
On 25 of June 2009, Michael Jackson, the world renowned Pop was proclaimed dead from Cardiac arrest in his home in Los Angeles, California. He was readying himself for a world wide tour, which was to start with London. Perhaps the complicated nature of the exercise and the problem of divorce and his children's custody may have seriously added to his longing. What a man like Jackson can go through! Not many feel entirely sorry for him, especially African Americans whom he dislocated for a very long time ago. It is possible that his interest in ghouslishly dresscode and pop icon status, and his tilt towards a leverage light skin may be due to his lack of inner self worth and confidence, a hidden side of him, which forced him to return again and again to his immortal youth. In spite of what people he might have done to help the course of the world, it is perhaps right to say that he dislocated the chain from his African American heritage along time ago and it did not help him that much.
In the 1980's Jackson's commercials yielded billions in sales, both from Coca Cola industries and from other commercial groups. Michael Jackson made very little from these commercials especially his world popular "stuck in the middle". He was one of the few that made afro-hair quite popular in the 70's and in the 1982 'thriller' everything broke loose from "funk, Pop, Jazz, disco" etc. The thriller album broke all the records in grammy music awards and the director of the studio album, Quincy Jones, also won several awards. Those directly involved in this 'thriller' album and its aftermath, from US to Africa were instantly rich from patronage of the Album and from salesmanship, but it is easy to see that from that great success in 1982, Michael Jackson could neither surpass his ability nor match his success.
In some reflection, we can say that only few will fail to think well of the guy, but if there is any commercial lesson to learn from this life, it should begin and end with the relevance of a great African American like Michael Jackson, Muhammed Ali, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Ophray Winfrey, Eddie Murphy, Don King, Mike Tyson, George foreman, Evander Hollyfield, Quincy Jones, Bill Cosby, Will Smith, Queen Latifa, Sean 'P.Diddy' John, Russel Simmon, Al Sharpton, T.D Jakes, Cleflo Dollar, Collin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, Maya Angelou, Toni Morison, Clerence Thomas, Barry Bonds, Janet Jackson, Aretha Franklin, Tina Turner, Whitney Houston, Jermaine Jackson, Prince, Eavin 'Magic' Johnson, Jerry Rice, Lawrence Taylor, Charlse Barckley, Jim Brown, Anthony Kevin 'Toni' Dunjy, Kareem Abdul Jabber, Bill Russel, Hank Aaron, Julius Ervin, Spike Lee, Morgan Freeman, Larry Fishbourne, Samuel Jackson, Martin Lawrence, Ving Rhimes, Wesley Snipes, Wayan Brothers, Cuba Gooding Jr., Danny Glover, Forrest Whitaker, Denzel Washington, Ice Cube, Lelia Ali, Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, Funk Flex, Serena Williams, Venus Williams, and latterly, Lebrun James, Will Smith, Kobe Bryant, Curtis '50 cents' Jackson, Bobby Brown, Curry Booker, Beyonce' Knowles, Steve Harvey, Jay-Z, Jamie Foxx, Dave Chappelle, Halle Berry, Dwight Howard, who still form a useful part of the living and who can still help African American society and market.
Then all the current bosses of both New York and US; David Paterson, Barak Obama, should take this reminder of Michael Jackson's early death as an indication to 'must do' for Africa Americans...who should come first in their actions. These are nothing short of great Americans, and contribute to making billions annually for world economic surging markets. Only whites can attempt the list above, there is nothing Hispanic, Indian, Arabic, Ethican White, and so on, or combined that can match this record. The way American society is structured is such that African Americans still make up 90 percents of inmates in prison and constitute American poor. American society is made up of branches but the color of these branches ought to be maintained through patronage of its existing fibre and a flower like Amarylis radiate from inside out. Always from inside.
By Iroabuchi Onwuka
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