HEDGE HUNTERS; hedge fund Masters on the rewards, the Risk and Reckoning' By Katharine Burton

Author; Katharine Burton

Published by; Bloomberg Press

Year; 2007

Pagination; 206

ISBN; 978-1-57660-245-4

Reviewed By; Iroabuchi Onwuka




The theme


The book is about Hedge Fund managers who rose to the repectable ranks of senoir advisers and managers of large funds. Such masters include Michael Steinhardt whose father saw him through education inspite of the gambling problems, Marc Lasry, Lee Ainslee, Boone Pickens; the 'impertubable oil man', Dwight Anderson, Josh Friedman, Brain Bradshaw, Julian Robertson, Daniel Loeb, Richard Perry, Craig Effron, etc. The book is entirely their story covering how they faired in their prospective businesses in times of trial and in times of truimph. In one clear langauge, Hedge Hunters is a book about the trials and triumphs of successful business men in an era of business uncertainty. It is not an understatement that people are interested in the history behind these successful men and women given the rise of Hedge Fund mangement and hunters since the late 70's, but how their story is brokered to the public in light of earlier successes is what the book essentially provides. The book is therefore suggesting the left and right of the demands of the business and how newcomers as well as old can profit from them. Hedge Hunters is published published by Bloomberg Press.


The Body


The success of this book lay not in its story but on the organising principle evident, so to speak, in these famous lives. If the author is willing to conduct a second survey of these lives, given the advent of the 2008 financial collapse, then there is room for the book to do much better in the book stands and in content. If the book did not make it big in the streets, it is probably due to the basic assumptions evident in the famous lives she treated. The profile of the book is a basic journalistic outline constructed mainly on Q and A, with the author providing a summary of the whole. Is she failed to hint on how the evolution of the hedge fund industry effected these lives and how these lives changed the industry completely, it for the simple reason that the book mainly highlighted the brighter days of these success story, as if the author was intent on forcing a success of the book by clipping the beautiful side of their stories without deeper probe into these stories and these lives.

The above statement does not mean that the author provided little or no light on the future of the industry neither does it mean that she cast enough doubt of a monolith's financial industry. The light she provided is my own opinion sincere that the industry is exceding its boundry, but such statements about the future of Hedge Industry is to be expected for it serves in many ways an interesting commentary. But a woman seeking to knock the common prejudices of the Hedge Fund Industries, should have gone an extra mile of providing the pros. of the Hedge Industries - archieved through the lives of the named Hunters - and the cons. of Hedge Hunting through the unnamed who did not survive the market, who are forgotten. She would used the platform of endeavor to demonstrate why women may or may not have prospered and how the missing half of the industry may or may not have wondered why.

Hedge Hunters as a literal work belong to the genre of 'Wall Street Wizards' the predecesor to the 'Wizards of Wall Street Wizards' and 'New Wizards of Wall street', but unlike these books that illustrated the basic facts of the interview in question, Hedge Hunters draw from the top and bottom of few people concerned. In many ways what you wind up reading is the inter-connecting stories of people who worked in certain capacity within the industry and how they used their influence to perfect their role as managers. These businesses stemming from the individual who trained them and the school of Hedge Fund they represented. In many ways, it is the face of the people who mastered the act of Hedge fund market that we read but in reading, we learn of the schools of influences that made this individual decided in business.

While these names will make us wonder at the sense of the book, it becomes gradually clear that certain people did not rise to the top of current business community without family problems and without hardwork. For instance Michael Steindhart and his jailed gambling father who managed get to pay his son's way through the college as a promise to the young man inspite of his personal failures. The case of Steindhart as an industry by himself began from his years as a young man trying out his hands in the family business and then the decided to build on that luck and family Trust what will become a successful business group. The story of Steindhart open a flood of insights into what makes anyone successful, that discipline and luck go and globe, but sometimes you need to be in action to find what area is best suited for you.

Then there is Marc Lasry whose story provide us with account of his 'intorelance for losing', but the relationship between risk and losses and the psychology type it tend to suggest was not mentioned in the book, except in the context of the next pick in the role of Craig Effron. This may reveal a contradictory nature of the man, perhaps an element of 'risk management' which Burton did not explioit. In that contradictory sense, we read of Marc Lasry saying that "everyone sees the same situations, but there are only a few who end up investing and even fewer of those who do well" and in the book, the author Katharine Burton seem to recognise this very part of Lasry well in paraphrasing his statement that "the art of investing, says Lasry is about seeing opportunnities that other managers don't see". From a man who has a knack for risk to the very man with a stronger knack for losing, the question is why does he, Marc Lasry, try to bet on probability. The answer to the question lay not in what he is saying but in what he does which in that sense is the secret of behind the strong will of the Hedge Huntes. The book goes on to cite for instance the debacle of Asian Markets of 1997 and 98, there was a lot of gaps in the Asian marekets, and according to Lasry not many people went to look at the stocks available. If they had, they would have discovered that the values of these companies were just suppressed, many of them were actually good companies.

The book goes to demonstrate other groups of money managers, Boone Pickens who she termed the 'impertubable oil' and his picks in the business which include Brain Bardshaw, David Meaney, Michael Ross and Alex sweczyk, all of whom believe in making out the small caps that have a tendency to rise-small cap to Big Cap. These individuals Pickens believe will lead the new era of Hedge Fund management. Then there are great ones like Dwight Anderson and Match Julius 'Doyens of Debt' who use their knowledge of Debt recovery and Bankcruptcy expertise to buy debt ridden companies with a view of helping their recovery from it and then the pay. Their picks include Jeffery Schachter adn Burtin Weinstein. Dwight Anderson called the 'Phoenix Phenomenom', whose pick is shown in Roberto Migone, perhaps the only hedge fund managers to compare true line freakonomics with the reality of surviving the hedge fund industry. Then there are others like Julian Robertson, Richard Perry, Daniel Loeb, Jim Chamos, who are posses a distinct degree of personal discipline and personal ability as 'manager's manager', among other risk drive-in. In naming the masters and the replacement and thier immitation we gain a better insight into mindset of the personel and the story behind them.

In many ways, the book is intended to illustrate the angles of distinction in the business of Hedge fund through the lives of the masters who lived and live it. If the connecting thread between these groups of serious men and women is their ability to manage risk then thier greater ability to withstandand pressure in terms of losses and profits become the line of demarcation. For this, there is a tendency towards summarising the book as an argument that the US Hedge Fund indusry can be understood from the perspective of personalities who grail the very top of the business ladder, for it seem clearly obvious that they could not have made it for such a long time without withstanding the probate burn of other people's money nor are bereft of the ability to hold the line of profit in times of heavy trading. If the top of trading is cracked, the pinnacle will naturally force a downturn but the exit strategy of these giants will make the pinnacle not so much a 'peak as it is a plateau'.

Conclusion

Some famous Psychologist, perhaps Sigmund Freud once said that certain level of human confidence inundate pure ego. He goes on to say that for some peope this is mainly natural and when such ego is fully exercised the only way forward would be downwards. The creative force of ego was overlooked, especially ego stemming from personal homework. But this ego as a form of confidence is by its intoxicating and when we place the Psychologist argument next to frontline politicians like Julius Ceaser, such intoxication is 'absolutely'. In advanced psychology of money if not in Hedge Hunt, this is not case, this not nearly the case for we know that some situations when money is involved can agitate the high art within and then the sparks goes up.

The inexurstible hunt for funds of all kinds has be seen by many as a case of ego, especially the case of Hedge Hunters whose exuding charismatic myth. But the public can now analyse that behavior as a mere side effect of those many years of hardwork, of delicate calculations, of foresight and of ruthlessness. As such ego in business of Hege Fund is as equal to needed confidence as confidence is equal to the coronation of market information, financial research and risk management. The varying nature of Hedge funds is easily tied to these discipline. The other discipline within the industry where success is due in part to the character of the managers in the main event, in part to the training of the managers and schools of training, but at large, Hedge Fund management is all about the ability to dig deeper in course of financial event in order to understand the risks involved and how to management risk through strategic study and forecast. Safe implementation of any startegy is a very necessary tool.

commentary

From the days of Benjamin Graham 'intellingent investor' and with Dodd 'Security Analysis', the world of Value business and Hedge Fund has not been the same. Taking risk in any business which is a form security Analysis need people who are willing to toe a certain line in business. Then faith in the analysis we obtain from company's profile and faith in the conclusion we draw becomes a derivitive of one's own experience in the business. For this, we may notice a shift of function in the table of Hedge Fund managers from the role of an analyst for analysis sake to the role of managers who are not only part of the business they represent, but have the working knowledge of the companies in question and how to expedite the fund in thier charge. This simple fact was not treated in the book, as such a lot of gap exist such that a second book in intently necessary to explain the evolution of Hedge Fund market from the eyes of these lives and also in terms of value. Not only in terms of value added measures but on what these managers have done by their own experience and training. How unique training proves a unique perspective in the trade industry become self expiated by the author and the book.

The book did not highlight the impact of Banking industry in the Hedge Fund as perhaps noted by the eyes of these managers and Hunters. The book suggested an expansion of the Hedge Fund industry has taken place, but this is almost explosion of Hedge Fund managers since the days of the so-called masters. For instance we know that in the 1980's, institutional investors, mutual funds, pension funds, etc around the world have become very evident in countries GDP. Since the days of China and other emerging socialist economies like India entering the common market, there has been new faces in Funds business and newer faces as the world catches up to China. From mutual funds and Hedge Funds of many countries in the world at slightly over 700 billion in the 80's to 5 trillions in 2000's. We are nolonger dealing with an industry of very select champions rather a world of stories of successful hedgefund managers.

Katharine Burton seem to play too close to the success stories of well established Hedge Hunters but may neglected the younger upstarts who would been the connecting thread between the passing and the present; which is really the future. From the lense and lenses of these masters whose stories become human in the book, we can say that the book met its primary target only to the degree that it should be accepted as a book of stories with no psychological relevance beyond the pathos of these persona non grata in Hedge Fund. But this misgives on the great 'potentials' of the book, that as much as people are interested on the binding intellectual tie of these success stories and thier human department, they are happier, perhaps with the guiding geniuses of these people; that is the infectious psychology torching the industry, the people who make the industry and the industry torching their inner psychology. When this is truly harnessed, the broader picture emergers and only then, emulation, as a possesive pronoun in world money and Hedge Fund becomes a 'different matter'.

'Banks Redlining' is still a monstrous phenomenom in US markets

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Redlining is a term we can avoid if we choose to. It concerns the act of putting a demarcation on the neighborhood of interest where Banks and other financially regulated and chartered institutions are only required to lend based on that neighborhood. By this acts, neighbourhoods may rise to American challenge due to Banks present, or may become cripple due to the Banking acting out their division based on what obtainable in the society. This practice of crippling neighborhoods through lack of appropriate funding continue today throughout America and goes a long way to explain the natural mind construction of several American society, where Banks can doom or boom any part of the country or any business at any time. This idea of profiling - artificially racial among other sorts - is so serious in New York that Bank Charters are willing to employ Asians and Asian Americans of certain stock that never lend to you as African American. Except for occassional scattered few who may go that route of American lending practice, but this is a very rare treat and many of them are leading at the ropes end end of their Job. If no one is willing to take the blame for the use and abuse of lending in New york, then attention should be made to those who represent the Federal Banking Acts in New York and other Federal reserves on the ground such as former Federal Reserve secretary of Bank of America, Timothy Geithner who is now secretary of Treasury and former associate of Federal Housing Authority Andrew Cuomo who is the so-called New York State attorney General. It is difficult to clarify how such acts could actualy take place in a state where much of the citizens are seriously struggling to earn a living and how it could go unnoticed for many decades. But using parameters in terms of Hedge funding and funding activities of the market, we can exploit better holes in the whole question, using indexes such as Credit Suisse First Boston, Hedge Fund Research-HFR, the Hennessee Group, Standard and Poor's s&p, and probably the Hedge index from Center for 'International securities and Derivitives markets' and other managed account Report.

Today's society of learners, especially among the African American who feel seriously defranchised from everything, including Public Television and Television Rights, are not even concerned with the problem of the 'Redlining' and other loan malpractices in US and in New York. For several reasons, much more should be done to make public the facts that the monstrous practice of the last century leading to civil rights era is still a very present and threatning danger to American Urban life. African Americans society and market is no more different from other world emerging economy which grativitate Billions of dollars every day, and if enough attention is given to the African American market, there is a tendency to believe that America would likely be better off than much of its current performance. That this view is seriously mistaken as side a effect of capitalism might have deceived the world into thinking that investigative inquiry into banking activities by third parties should not be taken serious. But the quest however continues, irrespective of the difficulty with African American audience in doign their bit in promoting the right manners in Banking.

Of the few books that I have managed to read in the past weeks, which include the 'American Dream' by Jason DeParle, the 'Universal Banking' edited by Anthony Sanders and Ingo Walter - published by New York University Salomon Center, 'Black Business and Economic power' edited by Alusive Jalon, and the 'Feds' by Martin Mayer, it is only the 'Feds' by Martin Mayer that attempted to speak eloquently of this problems with Redlining, both in terms of the previous years and in current American terms. In Deparsle 'American Dream' we learn of the civil struggle gainst Welfare program, where three lives of women and the children became the central fix in the whole debate and the author made out the case, but nothing concerning the root of the problem was ever discursed at all, that is problably not possible to remove the Welfare without the more erroneous problem of Banking cheating. In the 'Universal Banking' the book reflected the history of the banking in United States through the eyes of senior lecturers and in terms of 'efficiency' and 'growth' . The book highlighted several question of banks 'should banks be in the securities business and insurance, and where and not universal banks should be regulated given its perform relationship to 'specialist firms' and Hedge Funds in Globl markets. The book 'Universal Banking' also highlighted the abuses of Banking industries in taxes, especially the CHASE national bank and Chase Securities and Income involving Albert Wiggin to the Glass-Seagal Act in 1933. Yet no mention at any time was made in the Book about the need and necessity to trace some of the troubles, abuses, and prejudices of 'Redlining' in Banking industry to inner cities of American society. The last of the books is called 'Black Business and Economic Power' concerns business in African American society did not at any time treat the problem, saving for one mention of the history of Banking in Africa in the article 'Money, Credit, and Banking in Colonial and Post Colonial West Africa' by Adanmu G. Adebayo, where highlights of ABC-African Banking Corporation, West African Currency Board, SAP, ECOWAS and so on was made, and nothing that serious was ever said about African American businesses in the last 20th Century.

I managed to read Martin Mayer's book titled the 'Feds' twice, published in 2001 by the Free Press of Simon and Shuster Inc New york, the author made serious arguments about the 'monstrous' acts of denial perpetrated by Banks which if Americans should per chance the record, it could lead to a matter of distrust of Banks. But this it just the 'if'. The Book called the 'Feds' deserves a careful review but it details out the whole measure of what the House of Reps have been doing for some time especially the position of CRA - Congress for the Community Re-investment Act (CRA), where at least in "1991 Congress included the FDIC improvement Act a requirement that when 'CRA' find violations of equal credit opportunities Act, they must refer to the Department of Justice. In the 'FEDS', the author who is not African American exposed what he called ''monstrous'' practice of this redlining which he argued was much more Civil Justice was instrumental in be-deviling African American business and businesses with some of them getting the same message of the so-called inadequacy of credit. Then those who can get a mere drop in the Loans and Venture funding, get serious punitive requirement. But who are we kidding, it is seriously encouraging to make such inquiries into Banking since it mirrors the challenges of the Feds in Today's market, and not only that, it allows us to have a first hand look at what is happening to our financial institutions and its central question of survival. My inspiration to extend any useful review of the whole thing come from this book and the author Martin Mayer should be congratulated for necessarily highlighting the problems and any relevant architect of monetary policy, both of the Executive arm and the Legislative should do the same. Martin Mayer is credited with up to 30 books on Banking and in the 'The Feds' he challenged the State and Feds to do more in terms of investigating the normalised bad manners of the Banks towards lending. In many ways there is a serious connection of the likes of I, who get slammed everyelse and the young and older African Americans who have lost hope in the Banking industry. The question who know what is really happening to Banks? and who can widen that challenege by asking Barack Obama and his compeers to look at the serious problems of denial of loans and services to minority African Americans.


In short view, many many blacks and in fact Africans looking for loans to do business will not get it in New York, except for Mortgate loans in slums where half of the buildings are likely to loose their value with time, and then the 're-possession' due to payment strangled by loss of Job. Yet, the attention of many people is not so much what the banks do in mortage industry, nor the issue of Collaterized Mortage Obligation but what is happening to small American businesses that are owned and managed by certain range of minorities. The language of open source committee does not infect with action on what happens in a trade situated condition when the world of that finance is like the very monetary 'machine that can go on itself', nor do we expect Composites that run other finance materials to explain it all since it goes beyond the reach of many average time investors. Much more incumbent is what happens in derivative market where international markets join heads with American company and groups, in a place where the gap is further widened by different levels of repos. Thus in doing this, the competition that take place during ins and outs of what now happens in our daily business where people who receive enough company incentive will literally deny such incentive to certain people to permit indulgence, will not allow a careful review of this serious problem of lending malpractice. The attempt by the Federal Open Market Committe to investigate certain claims may do more harm than good while the authors who write about African American business and the role of Banks in America might choose to avoid this part of their service to enable a survival rope to continue in their career.


The malpractice of feeding only a particular group of Americans loans and offering credit expansion should however be investigated by Federal Bank Supervision and Federal Bank Agency (FBA) and they should look into what actually cripple African American business, and why they are not seriously represented at any level of business practice available any where in the world. The same should also be said of the 'Truth-in-Lending Act' enacted in 1969 which left the FEDS with some powers to essentially legislate through the three banking regulators among the Home loan Bank Board, the Bureau Credit Unions, the Interstate Commerce Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, the Civil aeronautics Board, the Agriculture Department, where power structures have the power to probe the activities of Banks and Financial institutions under their canopy. It will be very difficult to make such thing happen given the extra ordinary impact of mid-income Americans in today's world. But Martin Mayers position is only worthy of re-investigation but help to widen the gap in knowing what happens in a society where Banks profile others according to their wish.


There are at least 5000 banks and financial institutions in New York, and barely a handful of these banks are majority owned by Blacks. I mean, we can count very less than nameless ten in number including Insurance companies and old foundations owned by African Americans. In many ways the problem will continue long after now, even as we hope against the facts that some studies should be done in this world of inquiry. The African American business men and women are seriously surpressed except for proven talents, and so is their market. The major fulcrum in that whole engine is the banking sector of American finances, a fact that is so understated except for cases when Banks who 'wanna' look good will put a few black eagles in their teller services and in their front line. In many areas of New York, to be sure Queens, you don't have to show up if you are not like 'them'. Yet nothing is done by the US congressional committe to micro-manage the problem, to effectually conduct investigative study through FHA (Federal housing Authority) about such practices especially now that it has taken a very sophiscated form. That role of Bank in determining the first and last of what happens in our society may also lead away the stranger facts of determining the shocking lack of African Americans is senior management positions, not that the talent is not there but the Funds available and securities curve and other National and International derivitive markets are only open to specialised units and fund managers with safety nets.



And speaking of safety nets, US trade Almanac allow us to view what happens to the so-called U.S Total Retirement Market where even rackets from Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve Board, National Association of Government Defined Contribution Administration, American Council of Life Insurers, Internal Revenue Service provide a degree of funding for the general American, but such open tray of Funding never make it to the proper hands of African American Business who desperately need it. It has infact gotten much more worse in the last decade following the rise of the Euro pretending as counterweight to common benchmarks and common markets adn rise of immigrant populations of Asia. Obama's 700 Billion dollars spending and the spending done in hundreds of billion by Bush to the Americans may have been expected to filter through to the working ranks of American society, but structure and in mocking jest, it will not reach the small business who need it. This is likely the case and may well be, given the highly selective attitude of American banks towards lending, a selection that is entirely visible and hide away the profiling status of these inner cities Americans. Much of the problems of the civil rights era did not even highlight the role of Banks in creating financial inequality between Whites and Blacks in every part of United States and for lack oversight committe of the part of these African Americans, there is virually no mention of this athrocity of profiled lending by Banks. Yet the bad lending acts of Banks in New York, the Bad lending acts of finanicial institutions associated with the world do not get a mention in several books of the world. Many people who have complained that this non-lending behavior of Banks is still evident are nolonger with the banking industries, they get strategically isolated, and those who still complain make a case for themselves and may and may not not point out the root of the problem, which is the Bank.


The advent of Obama's nomination for the Nobel Peace prize as conferred on him by a collage of peoples representing the institution in Norway, had given new tension on the merits of his accomplishment. But the price may not have been for peace that is to come but for his effort in encouraging diplomacy in line with the likes of Bishop Desmond Tutu, Nelson Mandela, and late Martin Lurther. These fore mention group represents the era of civil struggle and how they sought to put away the devisive issues of their day through diplomacy. This nomination of Obama forces a new era of that civil struggle to begin, that the likes of Obama as with other men and women of international repute, are now recognised for their effort is forcing changes in better life programs and in advancement of women's movement. From that angle of fighting poverty and poverty prevention, there is required necessity to remind ourselves of those who have made significant efforts in changing the attitudes of Banks towards other Americans and other citizens. That effort must now be made of what is trully wrong with Banks and other financial institutions having to only extend loans to people who look like them and to a large extent enjoin the same religion. Not too many people will overlook the monstrousity of Indian financial industry in India, where people are turned down on loans for being a certain kind of Caste. Not only in India but in Korea, in South Africa, in Russia, and in Japan where people who do not belong to the 'family' or not among the numbered are to be ignored and should not even try to ask for loans. But they can all pretend to be good people in world markets. In India, there is the monstrousity of voting rights where half of the population are not required to vote, they are not illegible to vote and then there is women's right issue which all carry into the banking and housing industry where the shame is fully unleashed. In many ways, the idea of Redlining which seem to be original to America in the years past, is a mere drop in the bucket concerning what goes on and around the world in terms of profiling and in terms of prejudice, very still evident and US, very much alive in New York City

The US Federal Reserve and the problem of 1981/2

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Many markets and financial analysts are seriously suspect that the US feds are going to end the year at current rates, which might suggest that the Fed's attention is driven to hold back the weight of Bank's earning until early next year when the full effect of Obama's spending has fully taken place. The short drama in the past few months over the vote of confidence by Obama on Benanke, may have given analyst something to work with, that in the interest of Benanke playing on History as the saving strenght of America economy in times of crisis, Benanke will widen that power by a small interest rate raise to put the country seriously robust until when necessary. But this is not the case and probably won't be. Some analyst have said that a .25 interest rate this year by US federal Reserve will put the economy above 5%, a robust growth that seethes with resentment on the problem of inflation. Inflation in deed might harm the long term view of America Bond market forcing attention to be placed on the strong dollars. On the significant participle of foreign banks and IOU, strong dollars is necessary to handle the problem of inflation on the short term. A strong dollar policy will also keep oil prices in check against the expansionary view of the Americans economic policy. If 0.25 would have happened, American economy would be left with excess money in circulation which may offload as high crude oil price stemming from trade deficit over weak currency. But this may not be the case. If Benanke had gone that route before now, many people of course won't have noticed that the recovering growth of American economy is not fully charged. Above all, only few would seen that such interest rate raise would have slightly weaken American economy given the position of current successes as a false start. The play on trade was on Crude oil which some traders thought will ballon like last year given the might of Euro leading to the crash, but it was a quicker since others equally believed against the hype. In many ways, a strong dollar policy was only favorable idea in times like this.


But this is where the problem begins. The wound of world crisis is still fresh over the incidents of the financial debacle that rocked markets last year. The problem was finally figured out(as I have maintained) that attention ought to be placed on the dollars and not the Euro, and for us to get a better sense of the market it has to be based on the dollar and then the constituent member of that market. In a sense, the culture of money had to be directly equal to rising value-that the value of any market by any stretch is necessarily by will of a bench mark, like say the dollars of world order which form in many ways the point of the moving arrow. The only thing to remember is that the markets of the world are like a common arrow, where the rest of body are the constituent members, such that the whole of the world markets are necessarily part of that common and singular arrow shot from shaft with a particular direction. This is to be executed with right intention, with or without the view of necessarily hitting the Lady Luck, but non the less in consistent one direction non the less. This view I think is the whole philosophy of market systems. In many ways, there is such a thing as common markets, a sort of demand and supply within demand and supply out of which a better market emerges, and performance of that market allow us to financially speculate the rest. Of course it goes the other way too. It is also necessary to note that the market standard is necessarily the scale, rather the scales allow us to award the crown on the serving ruler. As such no similar such or alternative such crown is possible, unless it is a rebel group threatning the Monarch. But if the succeed...and however they succeed, we can at least strip the crown to proclaim 'long live the king'. The philosophy of one regnal market is the only way I think, we can explain the usefulness of US dollars and its position as the Benchmark of the world and heThe only difference is that this king/Queen is a self sacrificing king, who rules by the function of its services. And the pikes on that Crown are made of markets of the world all composing themselves as the world markets. If there is any attempt on the so-called Bench mark and this case US dollars, it will be a question of crash of the international markets. Europe beware. For that reason, whatever happens to the overall US market and the dollars, it might have a direct and indirect effect on the overall markets of the world. By that we can say that strong dollars as a position on the world will definitely yield poor pricing of the crude oil in the world As I mentioned early, when there is two common factors such a 'interest rate' decline and Crude oil decline we shall face the same problem we faced last year, since no significant stimulus for speculative finances are likely to exist.


To become an expert on the crisis of the Jimmy Carter era 78-82 era is to have written very seriously on the subjet and since I have not personal done any useful doctorate on the subject of 81/82 crisis of the world, I am not very convinced that enoug eyebrows would be raised on the approaching economic malaise of the world. But attention ought to be made on what happened to the world in 1981 and 82 when the interest rate was not in effect and when the US dollar was also a strong mold. A strong dollar mold seriously mean weak currencies of the oil rich economies, especially third world countries. The chain reaction of what happens when we have little or no effective interest rate in the world and short falls of crude oil price is that the world sankr into deep economic uncertainty. This was the case in 1982, at least in my current estimate. For a world still recovering from last yea's problems, there is need to be careful about staying to long on no interest rate and weak crude oil prices on the back of a strong dollar.



CAPM is called Capital price asset management. It concerns new ways of measuring what is happening in the world of asset pricing and value investing, which is significant in determining the range of business opportunity and inflation and may not take the role of other indicators in the market. If Robert H. Parks, Ph.D, Sam Nakagama, Gary Shilling are proved to be right, these co-incident indicators such as (1) income (2)production (3) sales (4) gross domestic product are not very great indicators, then we must not whole heartedly rely on what these things are telling us in today's inflationary tact, neither should too much emphasis be placed on the reversive index of Nikkon and Yen over the US bond market. More attention should be placed on the rest of the world, given especially the rise of the emerging markets in the world and what role they are likely to play in 2010 in the world-third world. In a sense, the support for strong dollars is helping for now, but the new year should look the part of increasing the U.S interest rate irrespective of the market data and we hang the hope that enough indicator can highlight the path of the raise and the very direction.


The fungible growth of US economy is a primary concern especially the very new and rigid invention of Government rules in financing, such rules may only serve to complicate the powers of Treasury which interfer with the market-an interference that is not due the Reserve. Yet attention on these very policy on the growth of the world market and its stability, should be the primary concern of the Obama's administration and the Federal Reserve.

Iroabuchi Onwuka

'Strong Dollar' paraire for G-7 Nations. Nigerians Beware

By
Iroabuchi Onwuka

The priority indicators, Ted Spread, Vix, Standard Deviation, Dollar Mold, Credit Spread, are giving away the facts that the economy is liquidity prone. Starting with signals on 'Standard Deviation' from last year's America GDP growth of 2% of a standard 4%. I shall argue that information from Futures and Hedge funds of 'June - September' this year suggesting a variance over 1% mean on 4% Standard deviation will show a cash simulation of 0.7 on wend, good for brokers/sellers and other fund of fund managers but not so good for the Treasury. That will suggest that the level of Drawdown by Bond closing in September 09 as per cash for cash reflect added volatility over this 1.25% mean on a probably 2% SD, there is a tendency that the skewness and Kurtosis will agitate at a faster rate forcing at 0.5 and persistent 0.5-0.6, meaning that volatility is likely the case as we approach other tranches in the Bond market. This will also mean that we not only have a enough money in circulation but much of the money is not getting re-invested in the economy, the money is rather moving from one Bank to other banks with a tendency towards Long term priority bond. That attarck formation of US Treasury and the Fed is to astutely provide the spadework on Short terms through WIN projects and other anti-inflation measures more important of which is Strong Dollar Mold.

Strong dollars is Redline for weak currencies in third world economies. Nigerian Naira is gonna get hammered as we approach December. Nigerian Naira is seriously depended on what happens to US dollars. If the move is strong driven, it becomes a warning signal for Nigerians tomind their books on the varying impact of rising dollars. The spiral case of the November 08 incident and the indigent effort of the former Nigerian Chairman Charlse Soludo in buying into the Naira through excess deposit of the dollars will re-occur if the Nigerian bankers association and their reps do not heed the signs from the G-7 meeting. In a sense, they are saying that We (G-7) under the umbrella on the dollar will push ahead because we have to and because of the problems of receipt from American IOUs several years ago. The trouble of inflation on the Nigerian national economy is still too much to permit any sensible littoral from Sanusi, his attention ought to be placed on what must be done to prevent the sure collapse of the Nigerian unit of exchange. The dollars is getting the cubic measure for interest rate and evidently as we speak, the Feds may not have fully discovered the point of Cubic Pendulum versus Time to implement any form of interest rate.

Many market analyst however believe that .25 raise will put the US economy over 5% this year alone, which is inflationary to the curve and hunker on the long term priority of the country's Bond Market. That the US FEDs are still holding their fire on the interest rate should mean that a lot of currency jobs must in still catching attention and the position on what to do, both long and short and strong and weak, is expected to occupy the time of most clearing houses of the world. When such part of interest rate in the US begin to add, there is very little resistance under developed economies will do, especially oil countries like Nigeria which has so-far suffered with the crisis that evinced its weight in the world last year. The only probably hedge we can hope for Nigeria and Nigerians is the act of watching the FEDS versus the Euro, when the rate begins to up, there is a chance for weaker options, and right before the Bond tranches of Europe due next year, Nigerian Central Bank should escape with more borrowing from the FEDS and the very cheap Europe. I mean more borrowing on per rate as a Billion Euro, which the option of blocking the 7 biilion transfer of international currencies to Nigeria afterwards. In many ways, the lending option of Nigeria given the current drama in the world is to be placed around the Europe as a point and forward for Dollars. With Nigerian finance minister, Mansur Muktah, on monday stating that the Federal Government will inject 2 Billion dollars into the Nigeria economy, the bad news is entirely out on the long term given the baby weight of Nigerian Bond market as more signals the ministers could point to a more liquid inflationary Nigeria market.



This afternoon on the Bloomberg Radio, reports came in on the interview with Jean Claude Trishe, showing that he is in favor a strong dollar as we head to the end of year. The mainpoint of the report is that Jean Claude Trishe, Benanke, Geithner, are particularly in favor of strong dollars. Information reaching us through the world bank and IMF meeting in Istanbul is that the financial ministers are very particular about certain rule to be implemented by US government, a position that is entirely Treasury, 'executive' in rendition and proffers a war with the more 'legislative' Federal Reserves of the world. What we are however learning is that international banking and activity in terms of loans and loaning between banks may shown soem signs of life in them. If the signals are right, Europe should be favored. The weight of world responsibility is shifted on the dollars and might mean the weakness of Euro by default. Shortfalls on Euro could provide a path for re-payment of the bad loans made to these foreign third world countries, some of which were down right illegal. The problem is not the legality of the loans but on the impact that such funding or funds of funding (which is really the case) would have on these third world countries. Crude oil driven economies are most likely to get the first punch, oil opens the window for international businesses yet it closes them just as fast, as easily as oil prices are expected to drop by way of strong dollars and a weakening of Euro.

'Pure Play' in New York City

By

Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka

Whatever definition is given to the idea of 'Pure Play' cannot truly apply in New York, the whole game of selling and dealing through the internet and doing business through social network has taken on added weight. The informed status recently enjoyed by the prevailing cultures in the state and sources for information may have taken on a whole new attitude in New York and in US in general, it is become more expensive in terms of security network that it provides. But you are not blame them, for how could anyone It is not just the Banks that operate in the dark that should concern the best of us, or companies that provide security information and apparatus while at this same time participate in public market that is should concern us. In the past, empires and kingdoms, peoples and languages were known for the buildings they mounted and houses they built, but these days, we can suggest that the sophistry of most economic societies can be reduced to pure play.


It is possible to assert that produce from farming and Manufacturing in general can not replaced by Information Systems which is not edible and ultimate only gratifies when a service is done, does not mean that Information System is anything but the future. Information Age and the consequent issue of Security associated with draws blood on the possibilities of a comprehensive Artificial Intelligence in future and the rise of the third person singular, that is, the other you that was never there, that is the Matrix evolving from a complex of your phone calls and your reaction to specific questions during conversation, your reaction to other personal and as well emotional experiences and from other immateriality such as range of products that you buy at any of your local stores. That is a record of your past as estimate of your probable future, all of which is already in use and therefore warranting a larger security framework.    


But that future is the cause of recent nightmare, and in that nightmare there is a day breaking that books which we read before and a product print and paper may now be read through a Kindle and other Note Books. In future, there will other forms of maintaining and reproducing information without the big hardware that come with it. What we are dealing with is the issue of face less communications, where as people in the past had building and human beings who signed in and out of business contracts, Pure Play involves people you don't see, buildings you don't see, and there is no where you can account for any transactions only through the so called voice on the phone. There is no argument that Pure Play does not have its limitations or that these limitations can not be overcome, but we dealing with accountable in a world of business people and busy businesses, where anyone working for the government or in the guise of similar outfits may likely convert sensitive information for very personal gains. The whole process may be argued from the point of Security, that internet and other safe-net spaces, may be the answer. Yet anyone who has dealt with Debt collectors and big companies such as Verizon where faceless operators respond to you through your own portfolio, will enjoin this experience that your personal security or other forms of personal information can be used against you by persons


That price of security is much more useful and it is very useful to a large extent in New York to invest in areas of private security that saw the last evolution of security services leading away from the 9/11. The facts of paying too much to sponsor internet business has also suffocated security businesses done on the ground in New York. The possibility that a place like Empire State Building in New York or New York library is seriously under surveillance, does not mean we have total control over the building at anytime, as such attention cannot be placed entirely on Internet security and security services that provide them. Yet attention seem nowadays to dwell on businesses involving internet as if these terrorist will communicate through the net and through automated signals. But that is just one major advantage. The advantage of doing business through the internet carry the greater danger of compromise in terms of security. In many ways, there is a necessity to let privates handle sensitive information but such access to information can at times prove disastrous especially when Information only passes through One major source and such sources decides the left and right of businesses or profits that connect with it.


Most people in New york who trade or who play in any major markets by any single stretch, are perhaps aware of General dynamics, some may have signed a few papers with Home land Security or other security based groups in NYC. In the light of the wire's fraud and the complication of automated quote lines leading to the 65 billion dollars scandal involving Bernie Madoff, there has been an increased tendency from the US to police the network of wire business. For people who tract 'new economy' this is essentially a difficult executive procedure since Global markets have shifted base from a down where the operational cost are likely covered by banks and their representative, to the people and including children who can make money right of the internet. Yet in New York City has taken on a whole new meaning and in fact attitude. We are beginning to hear the deep throat of too much policing from everything including Cameras in subways to whole run.


The security groups are going whole sale of whatever inspire fear and the more they calm, but this is getting very negative coverage. Beginning with the President Barrack Obama whose visit on 14th of September, a day supposedly intended to co-inside with fall of Lehman brothers to his visit to Albany yesterday, it is likely that the new apparatuses of surveillance and internet security run private may create more problems in future than solve. Above all, if the issue of perpetual surveillance is to be taken literary, then a gap or hole in information exist for what happened with Madoff and his scandal, since we know that until he was discovered and charged, he was called the Chairman of NASDAQ. NASDAQ is the head-chief of information technology and security pure play, there is further gap to be explored on the movement of National Intelligence investment on private security companies, some of which were forged and what swelled the portfolio of Bernard Madoff. His accomplish ought to European who dominated that market at some point and 'motley', English who weaved in and out of US intelligence market. Further holes can be dug into the impact of connecting American stock market and British in 2004/5.


This theme of being under perpetual surveillance, and the consequences of it all is well treated in a new book 'The Secret World of outsourcing intelligence; Spies for Hire' by Tim Shorrock, published in 2008. The book not only highlighted the difficulty involved in coping with the new age information technology, it goes the distance in letting us see the contagious necessity of making deals with private security experts in United States. In New York following the debacle of the business. In his remonstrance, he scored on the fact that Q-Tel ( an alpha source by forge as in Q for Quelle as it is German for 'source') of George Tenet era, intended as venture Capital Fund for CIA, had done better than most in telling off the direction of Government spending in military information technology and as such denied others the opportunity of running on even keel with open market and common market funding. Q-Tel may have yielded the beauty of 3-D Google Earth as part of the deal with Google and Keyhole inc. based in California. The problem with such venture capital funds like Q-Tel is that it involves investment bankers which raises eyebrows concerning the 'no risk' business incentive in a Capital market industry where 'Talent' for risk management is an instrument for praise. But then there are companies that have done their own bit in signing up with the government of such matters as bid-on information technology. These groups will wholly include, BAE systems, L-3/Titan, EDS, General Dynamics, Man Tech, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Nortel, Northrop Grumman/Essex, Raytheon, and NCI.

Concerning of the state on what happened and why it happened during 9/11 may been complicated by the wholesale failure of once popular prototype for wire tapping called SIGINT, which at some point the superior tapping and wiring endeavor. SIGINT was believed to have failed in 24th of January' 2000 and after the incident of 9/11, it was the CIA who began to push the move for a change with Fiber Optics.Tom Shorrock highlighted the compromising structure of the wholesale intelligence society of USA, especially data mining, which he vaguely but did not fully demonstrate could predicate on who wins in many business circles and who rules the war of financial market place. That data miners were selling information based on fear seem relatively common knowledge, but much less known is the area were outsourcing was a big deal such as the ones that follow SIGINT debacle in 2000, the relationship between buying information gadgets and making one, moved from 17-20% to 80/83% within a matter of years. Shorrock mentioned that a time it was an conscionable compromise on military Intel which had to be tolerated, but deeper still, the whole deal has become a tool for private ends since public freedom was essentially denied.

The issue concerning the 9/11/01 and other security failures and failures of integrated systems in New York leading to the two recent air plane crashes, lead us to understand that as far matters of security, interns of integrated systems are concerned, the solutions for it is still pressing. Yet, the matter involving security in New York is no longer so much the show of power and stability as it is now, the fear of being under perpetual vigilance as new provisions are signed into law permitting Cameras to overhang in NY subways. There are all kinds of internet and security based businesses in New York, especially security driven which has taken on the added muscle of charter, following the incident of 9/11/01 in New York. In the '9/11 Commission' initiated at the behest of the last president, George Bush, revealed lapses in judgement of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) under George Tenet, the whole survey tended to suggest that CIA was not always in charge of the situation, sort faulted the leadership community for the poverty of information and all else.


Whether or not the man in charge at the time of the incident had principal hand in determining the shortfalls of information data is not noted, but what seem clear was the rise of security information outfits and surveillance technology much of which where privately owned and operated and gradually yielded grounds to the state beginning with the incidents of 9/11. From Q-Tel initiated by George Tenet himself following the debacle of SIGINT, to Donald Rumsfeld's insisting on incorporating privately owned internet security systems into the US military, a whole new world of security information 'Pure Play' was born and since then Google, Yahoo, Aol, the Apollo, the flag Atlantic, and Global Crossing, have signed a useful parity in security surveillance with more Government security intelligence. Spying on your neighbor may be a world we only hear about, but under this signatories, it is impossible to deny that spying on your fellow traders with the advantage of invisible cameras as large as the Armory pole has become much more closer and much more compromising in nature.

The problem is not with those who ask for the information, the problem is with those who wind up with direct non-public access to information that can make or mar competition in any industry. That a social network like Facebook, Twitter, Linked, Inter-business, might face technical problems does not necessarily mean it has weaknesses in the information technology, rather it could mean that competitors with some degree of leverage of relevant information and access might seek extortion from the said group or face a technical glitch. The rest of the world would never know what happened and how it happened. If we pay thousands of Dollars per screen a month to have a market Data network from Fisk, CNN, Factiva, Reuters and Bloomberg, you can imagine what the price would be for major corporations seeking interest in an financial areas where private owned by publicly traded companies are monopoly, there is no degree to what can happen to these small business. The whole idea bothers on malpractice.

Within a matter of years after the acquisition of private security companies market reactions to the whole incident seem to have taken roots in stock markets. Such that private ownership and preferred stocks will tend to operate against public market capitalization. In the book we learn of this trend from the figure " that capitalization figure, derived from a company's stock price per share and once more, the author included the issue at hand using tracking group that might also include A.G Edwards defense banking group "that Capitalization figure, derived from a company stock price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding, is generally a good indication of investor interest in a specific industry. Collectively, the value of the intelligence pure plays exploded in the first five years of the war on terror, from $980.5 million in 2001 to $8.3 Billion in 2006. You are looking at 900% - increase"

Given the formal nature of capitalist society as prone to advantage, the paradox of netting cash through information has taken on a whole meaning, becoming a vise in common markets. In this we mean that the way front process of letting competitors participate on certain necessary 'Pure Play' information where only a group has useful access to information might be challenging, especially when it involves the smaller companies who are likely to compete with bigger companies in any given world market for security contracts and market opportunity. There is a problem of legitimacy involved in marketing under the wire, but non of immediate practice is set in such as to oppose any thing we find in FDIC rules and regulation, and more than anything too much regulation could just kill the Market. If private investors as well huge financial institutions can be taken seriously, they are likely to participate in an open source automated quote lines, but for IPOs arriving on the board with venerable software and little primary source, there is a case to be made that 'filling orders' and quotes on line which brokers nowadays do, can be intercepted by much primary sources from higher levels and then then mantra of rerouting basic IP routes. This measure so to speak is re-gauged in such a way that online primary interceptors or level III and IV trading institution much of it is NASDAQ will likely file a forward ahead of intercepted filling orders, and by merely pressing on a button leading to the sale or hold level I and II position. In such circumstances, the bigger coverage will now set up their calls based on information that is available to them via direct access, and can hold until volume builds within seconds of trading window before the 10-15 seconds automated quote lines make the board and 'in-in' less competitive direct access 'Pure Play' will simply bring down a whole economy.


Lately in New york, the whole fear of that what happened in New York with the fall of Lehman might repeat itself in years to come, yet the problem with Lehman like many other derivative financial companies and institution is that people who were supposed to monitor them were also involved in making the . The question on e need o ask is why did Madorf succeed so easily, the fat remains that he could not succeeded without others and more than anything, he could have only succeed in a system that is in his own hands. The other issue which take the front line is the one concerning election and electioneering campaigns. For instance in New york, there is nothing any opponent can do to raise awareness on the shortfalls of the current incumbent of New York without first encountering the obstacles of public view, fed on by local news and television with primary attachment to primary sources and prodded by primary information source and the restriction to general access. After the visit of the President to New York, it has been my personal concern that Americans sense of security, especially its bend towards private security is signaling a process that could get out of hand.




Since the advent of 'New Economy' stocks, these has been a less dependency on Banks for credit. The dependency ratio on privates to banks and credit spread in the past The federal reserve considering the 'frisson effect' had done its bit to uplift the credit power of most average business men and women through other financial institutions. That action from the Feds had been intended to galvanized the so called 'New Economy' due to the benefits of the credit companies and hedge funds relying on new and improved businesses to do better. With the era of corporate sponsorship through the state and financing through sensitive intelligence areas of the state, we gradually be. Some of the chattered internet companies are still likely to open a can of threat alerts, that could force a market reaction for and against security. This can be done without due pronoun to the success of the financial markets, and can still be done with or without reference to the nature of the threat nor the justifications for it. Why this spells disaster for private Americans cannot be fully grasp accept in the context of New York City. More that these facts of security compromises of private Americans, we can have a grim picture of what these security companies can do with businesses we own and operate in the United States.


The problem is that many people in New York have probably never heard some other companies exclusively dealing on surveillance, and never perhaps heard of Aerospace, nor have have been privy to the fact that their computer encryption like the ones manufactured by Dell, IBM and Microsoft (the last to sign on), would provide the government all the information they need about the individual, not only that, your bank's information, technical particulars and activity can be at the easy beck and call of the guiding governmental security service provider without your express consent. if these things are ordinarily monitored by the Government these no problem, unless no we are dealing with the issue of safe net and matters arising from very responsible individuals hiding under the canopy of Homeland security. It is well known that actions of all sorts are monitored by government-backed-reconnaissance security web-nets, there is nothing new about this and nothing wrong in such attempts. The minor stick in the whole evolutionary ideas of using information technology to manage and monitor information technology, is that it spells security compromise for non-secuitors, and on certain sensitive information about individuals can reach the ranks of those who use for their own personal gains.


With internet based business which New york once provided a haven, the industry once useful for directing the source of business connection, it is possible to blank an opponent out of competition with barrage and barrage of information, many of which is negative. In a setting like New york, companies doing very well in the private, seeking a form of business on the public protection and national security will have to levitate towards those in power.When you however normalize the habit of mounting suspicion, it becomes in due time, perpetuated. The relationship between the intelligence committee and the friends of the committee would welcome a new world of intelligence, but the compromise the rights of citizens following the 'Patriotic Act' of George Bush will only bring in a new world of information exploitation...

'The World After Oil' by Bruce NussBaum

Book Title; The world after oil. The Shifting Axis of Power and Wealth.

Author; Bruce NussBaum

Published By; Simon and Schuster, New York, NY. 1983.

ISBN; 0-671-44571-5

Language; English

Pagination; 319

Review; Iroabuchi Onwuka



Introduction.



The book is arguable prophetic given the current sales issue of GM and the automobile industry. The book deals seriously on the changing dynamics of power and wealth through technology and how the advances in science and technology, especially Medical sciences has made life easier for people and generated wealth for the champions. The American influence in the world was due to its pivotal position as the oil magnet of the world. It achieved this reputation in the world through the power of oil, but the rise of OPEC as a trading block, paraded to the world by 'Swiss bankers' and new technology not only changed the price of crude oil, it raised the game of crude oil price to a very new level. The price of that endeavour was the attempt at alternative energy and technology which the author is basically arguing represented the new world. In a sense, a new world in the 80's was emerging as a counter weight to oil and as such the pioneers of any new technology in world or newer advances in technology were laying the foundations for a new world altogether.


The book traces the root of new world power to alternative energy and information technology, emaniating from countries like Europe and Japan, with Russia seeking to change their new attitude towards Robots. Other frontliners of that world in the 80's was a country like Japan and their intent on technology which has harried away the like of Kodac into holes of esponiage on very extensive FBI files, and from a well of an emerging US market driven to core by mostly data market, a quake in ground movement is felt allover the world in the 80's.



Body



Point of correction, this book is nothing about oil. It is nothing about the growing competition in the world as at 83, the book does not encourage any form of escape from reality, that oil then and now is matter too great for common market, rather the book is about the power of dumping the extensive reliance on oil. The world as at the early part of the 80's was still used to power new advances in technology which were mainly mechanical and rely on oil. But that world was getting old by 1982. In leaps and bounds, the world has gotten away from the huge emphasis that was placed on machination and oil. In a sense, the book had been written as a 'boom' or 'doomsday' prophecy on the shifting ground of world market power from Crude oil, which represented all sorts of power and which the author argues against the newer realities of world technology.

There was a tendency towards information system which was foremostly led by a certain enterpreneur, Steve Jobs. There was IBM, Cisco, and other American companies that were focusing their research mainly on information technology. In 1983, the World history and Sciences were just waking up to newer realities of discovery. So rapid had been those newer breakthroughs that the whole lifestyle of information system which was still far from many Americans and the rest of the world, had deepen, complicating the human of fear of technology that was eventually recognised as cyberphobia. There was the cyberworld of technology whose primary circle of data minning had set the stage for the future and was intent of remaining the same.

There was also the Robots to consider, and according to the book, the world was guzzling away its energy and "in an era of high priced energy, robots meant higher productivity, lower costs, and even better quality." The price of oil at the inception of OPEC moved from $2.10 to about $13 in 1979. Perhaps Bruce Nussbaum was right that "by raising the price of energy so sharply and so quickly, OPEC transformed the entire base of world economy. By increasing the price of oil fifteen folds in less than a decade, after nearly a century of stable cheap energy, OPEC changed the technological foundations of Western society and set in motion vast social and political changes that are now coming into focus". We can guess that the author is implying the fact that shifts in oil power bases and control, led to new frontiers of technology and new appetite in sciences.

It was also observed in the book that the world of Cybernomics once all American have yielded some ground to Europe and Japan. In fact, Russia in 1983 led the world on many fronts of war technology, began to tune their attention to information technology, sharing with Americans who were doing their own bit mainly in terms of 'C & C' computer and communication and in terms of genetic engineering. In terms of network and communication Russia was very backward at least on head to head match with the world and with Europe. The major area of importance was Robots which were destined to gradually replace the workmanship of human resource. Alchohol played itself out in Russia as a disease, and that meant much trouble for the working population of Russia. The country was still very isolated and by that issue of job creation and manpower basic to communist societies, Russia had little reasons to consider Robotics as replacement for humans, and if they accomplished this with 'Unimates' Robots, they were seriously backwards in information technology and it was going to hurt them strategically in the future.

The author used several examples to illustrate the power of technology in the modern world, citing for instance the use of information system in the Isreali war against Lebanon in 1982. Lebanese Russian made SAM (Surface to Air Missiles) were completely destroyed by Isreal before the war even began. That incident raised the question of new age technology that the world was getting stormed by systems of information that made the unimaginable possible through its electronic feedback. The author also cited the example of Telegram, an information dispatch technology which by itself is a breakthrough, given the advances in technology, had become rlatively obsolete in 1980's, much easier to make the connection between one part of the country to the other. No business man and woman who wish to continue their existence in commercial industry should forgo the new issue of imformation technology. In a sense, emails and Fax machines might be taken for granted today advances but in terms past, it was a thing for upper society.

There was also the quest for better communication in at the time of the writing. Television were set to get a better attention in terms of ECB, an abbreviation for Electronics Communications Box. The impact of information technology in the 1980's was so great that many analyst were willing to bait their career on the future of American banking system, where it is believed that in near future Americans can buy and sell products without living their houses and have a securitized access to their bank acount, from which payments are made. To many Americans then, this was insane since the idea of electronic payment much more popular today was still limited in scope and in hindsight, it posed all kinds of challenges to other semi government controlled American businesses. Yet the book cited that Citicorp, the 'holding company for Citibank' had private communication agency within their companies and so did Texas instrument and IBM. These companies had very useful information mining data that kept them ahead of the world but in the breakthroughs of information network in the 80's, these companies will have let go of the monopoly of private network world.

Data Minning in America has been a center of gravity for information related agency. In terms of US Treasury advisorial and former Central intellingence agents, data mining and storage is Americas greatest security weapon. That world of security was in the 80's also changing from entirely mechanized arms to wars that can be fought with digital computers. Silicon Valley in California for the most part became the center of excellence in computer science and gradually adapted itself to the center of information minning. Silicon Valley also attracted the greatest minds of that era and became home to technology giants who cared more for themselves and themselves alone than the rest of the country. Such idea of having an area entirely dedicated to an industry played out its huge dividend in output and in excellence.

The role of an academic institution in nurturing the breakhroughs in sciences and technology have long lived the reality of everyday Americans. American institution for sciences and technology like Berkeley and MIT, have added their degree of discipline to the world of science.
To further buttress the example we can refer to the book's quotation that "from Stanford, Berkeley and Caltech has come a rush of scientist to set up Cetus, Eugenics, and other tiny biotech companies. On the East coast, the Cambridge area of Boston, home to Route 128 and its myriad Computer companies, is now a hotbed of new bioengineering activity."

Breakthroughs in drilling and maping out areas of crude oil had been started through the university and then the rest of the world. The connection between American Universities and industries have always remained the secret of sucess for the Americans. Just like the advances in Petroluem and Crude oil were made possible by studies in the Universities, these Institutions
were also pioneering breakthroughs in other areas unrelated to oil. For instance information technology and T.V communication and Bioengineering were to conform to major patterns of business administration and unmanned Robots replaced human hands in Major industries in the world.

Commentary and Conclusion

It is import to note that this book, which is an 80's example of Thomas Friedman's "World is Flat" of 2005, did not only intend on providing information about businesses, newer technology and Robot, rather a world as we know it that was gradually surplanted by man made. Like 'Friedman' of 2001 'Lexus and Olive tree', this book 'The worl After oil', a forerunner of the above books, looks at that changing dynamics of the world and how those changing dynamics of technology dictated the world power.

If the book is tireless informed, it does not mean that the very author himself is an economist, neither can it be said that the author understood the nature of U.S Banking and Investment.
The huge expansionary nature of Japan's economy may or may have been influenced by American investment banking. By that, it is possible to argue that Japan's technological improvement represented everything that is mainly American in essence, it represents the common grounds of international banking and finances.

Despite the deficit in the America and the rising tide of manufacturing around the world, emerging economies in the 80's world were bound to simultaneously support the American economy. In the argument about the power of technology improving lives could be the case, when in times past, there was a balance of power and market forces were subjected to what group produced the larger size of production. We have however come to understand that productive capacity of any country should not entirely reflect its market hence its value.
Rather, production curve of any civil society should be made to graph in such a way as to suggest the 'fundamental value' of the existing market.

If he has a prediction for future years, then there is a tendency to evaluate his theory in the context of electronic age video games and in terms of Network that has taken a whole new color since the 80's. As much as crude oil has played a major hand in determining the direction of US dollars, it can also help to sponsor new frontiers of venture captalism to which Americans had more than once demonstrated leadership. It is this unique possibility of converting much profit from oil to business and using 'cash receivables' of any country in lending that such wonderful frontiers of technology can be made possible.

The major lesson from the book is not that people should fear new advances in all classes of technology rather, emphasis must be placed on advances in sciences and technology and the institution or nurture grounds for it, which will not only solve the problems of dependence on foreign oil but will serve to creat the path for future advances in anyother field like Medicine and so on. The shift on the dependence of oil for business or other growth technology is seriously inevitable. The natural question is what to do with that shift in technology.

Thus we can conclude this book with this example "in 1975, just two years after Dr. Charles Boyer of University of California at Berkeley and Dr. Stanley N. Cohen of Stanford discovered the technique for gene splicing, Boyer met with a venture capitalist to set up the new company, Genetech, to commercialize the budding new technology" of gene splicing and eventually hormone treatment.

'Power and Stability in Nigeria' By Bretton L. Henry

BookTitle; Power and Stability

Author; Bretton L. Henry

Publisher; F. A Praeger, New York, N.Y. 1962

Pagination; 208

Language; English

Review; Iroabuchi Onwuka



Introduction.



The book is about Nigerian political formation and the forces that mitigated the general stability of that independent Nigeria. There was much hope for the new Nigeria Republic in 1960, and the realised call of Nnamdi Azikiwe to self rule took on a new meaning in 1960. The early Nigerian politicians did not know what to do with the country, they were not sure how to begin the new Nigerian Republic, neither could they say whether or not the Nigeria union of states was ever going to make it. Fom the very beginning, the country seem to hold their breath with hope that time will offer new meaning to the country.

The author seem to reflect his experiences in matters concerning the impact of colonialism in a Nigerian fragile union, and how the weight of the British colonialism so to speak, seem to fracture the 'power and stability' of Nigeria. The author Bretton L. Henry spent the first two years of new Nigerian Republic in Nigeria, recording what he considered useful in terms of data collection. In those two years, he served as an eye witness to matters arising from the whole political condition evident in the turbulent years of Nigerian independence and thereafter. He recorded the problem on the new Nigeria with a tendency to Lessellian Theory, where much of his theory concerning the irregularites of a new republic seem to hang.



Body.



The role of leadership qualities in Nigeria at its early stage seem now forgotten, but in this book, the author may have reminded us of the urgency of the problems that faced Africa in 1960's and in Nigeria enough leadership quality was the essential part of the whole problem. The author pointed out that despite the need to emback on the betterness of the Nigerians concerned, there was serious problems of leadership stemming from its member parties and tribes. In essence, Nigeria had much more of the problem of leadership than the movement it represented and the author, L. Henry who was himself an American, was not sure of the very survival of Nigeria since the political power bases and Party systems, were only tribal but regional as well.


He observed that Nigerians were living the illusion that power in the country was ethically 'diffuse' but in reality the whole theme was seriously misleading. Not only were political parties set on the platform of tribe, there were other chieftain elements murking the waters for all Nigerian. In fact, religious rulers in Northern Nigeria infact prodded the said political parties.
In the book we read for instance that "in the North especially, the leaders who control the land, the means of production of wealth, and the channels of distribution are too closely identified with imperial rule to subject themselves and their group successfully to a thorough political metamorphosis." This had been his formal way of arguing on the fact that tribal as well religious heads in Nigeria, especially in the Northern Nigeria, were translating their local rulership into political dictatorship.

In this book, there is much to be learnt Nigeria in its early years, especially the very constitution of the country and deomgraphics. The book provided a first hand account of the condition of life in Nigeria some of which is nolonger true. For instance, the book did show that the Northern Nigeria were made up of mainly Hausa and Fulani, many of them with very illiterate background. The West of Nigeria were made up of people with as much education as schools permitted but the rise of education is the East was a phenomenom. Though overated, seem to have been a shining light for the country and care was to be taken if the political weight of Nigeria does not fall squarely on the South alone, yet greater fear was in the North were oligarchist that spurred the North before the English, had refused to dismantle the institution.

Bretton L. Henry tend to suggest that long after the English left that there was still serious power construction in the hands of the power players and the parties they represent. These parties acting as one complete whole were actually puppets for the very English. Nigerian leaders seem to have inherented much power from their colonials, and the country of 40 million people at the time of the book had much to deal contend with. The first politicians were sure of their own ability, there were not certain what that ability really meant nor the tribe will be asked to abandon their own identity.

L. Henry seem to indicate the evolution of English policies towards independence had so much to do with the cost of maintaining such expensive colonies around the world. In Nigeria, there was a great number of educated people seeking to move into the ranks of politicians and who in times past, had offered their own degree of loyalty to the country. L. Henry suggested that the rush to grant British colonies their independence were not acts of benevolence, rather the practical matter of maintaining an English rule much longer than necessary in provinces which has taken a very human face. The structure for economic business were still very English and visible, they were not dismantled at all, a fact which which the locals were aware of, an incident which may have forced the Nigerian locals to call for a communist experiment.

The drift towards communism didn't last long, and the those who maintained the communist agenda easily became unpopular. In the years leading to independence of Nigeria, the English used favoritism to conduct the appointment of office. Such act could not have been avoided since Nigeria before independence had been very restive and neither the English nor their business men could entertain any form of challenge. In the end, the institutions of money and wealth left over to lobbied friends of colonials led to ranks of corruption which was perpetuated in the Northern Nigeria. In a sense, the colonials normalised the habit of currying favor and according L. Henry it sought became perpetuated.


Commentary/Conclusion

The forementioned episodes were means employed by the author to archieve his view of Lesselian theory which he elaborated by saying that "in the more highly developed free societies substantive changes are brought about by forces operating outside the confines of parliament in open economic competition." 1962 Nigeria was a country that was still surving due to the impact of British society on it and that impact brough several degree of good and corruption. The Nigerians were also aware of the inevitable decay of their economy and country were acting to it. In essence, the foreign influences were necessary but the residual effect of such influences can be counter productive and in country with vast many resources, the level of training on the ground may or may no carry the thick demands of the country.

According to the book, the federal minister of Economics Development Ibid, stated that "expatriate firms and individuals who engage in our country's distributive trade and road transport business are extremely powerful, influential, and virtually control the economy of our country..."

That the Federal ministry of commerce and industry in Nigeria noted, that "the economy of our country, strictly speaking, is not in our hands. Over 70 percent of our overseas trade is controlled by forces over which we have no control"...Ibid, (November 16, 1961). Even as we write, these forces which were briefly checked by the military episode in Nigeria are still very much active and may still retain the business of the trade route since the English left in 1960.

The book also mentioned a very acid comment by one Senator Nwafo Orizu who was the senate president until the military took over, that "the trend is to call every company a Nigerian company. That is, somebody is appointed from outside, a Nigerian, one foolish man, who is usually given a big appointment, and a big salary, so that they can call the company Nigerian. He has nothing to with the company".

Last but not least, Chief Obafemi Awolowo in a speech given in the House of Representatives, November 29. 1961(Col.3527) 1961/2 section, also noted on this foreign manipulation of Nigeria which was over bearing on the country that "because they control the bulk of our financial institutions, they accordingly influence, for good or ill, the availability....of adequate capital and credit and their eventual direction"

All these government officials and their agency including Tafawa Balewa, were all pointing to the problem of Nigeria in 1960 through 62, that the Nigeria was economically still in the hands of Britain. Everything from civil finances and transport services were in their hands. The rate of unemployment in Nigeria and the showing of corruption of a national level, the interception of judicial authority and the repeal of legislated laws by Sarduna of Sokoto may have altogether given wings to Nigerian military coup in 1966 and perhaps the civil war shortly after. In my opinion, the Nigerian civil war may have put an end to the English financial network and control of Nigeria in 1966. From this view of probable losses and need to win something back, Britain couldn't have sided the Biafrans.

The Funk goes on, U.S treasuries, a peculating Dollar and the decline of crude oil prices.

By

Iroabuchi Onwuka

The funk goes on. Barely six months ago, the world was heralding crisis like no other. The Dollar took its strength to the rest of the world, and there was massive implosion of currencies that pegged its success on the performance of Crude oil. The crude oil prices as at July 2008 had sold at various record prices, going at some point as much $150 a barrel. It was way over priced and it was a question of time that the market understood the consequence. Six month ago, at least on the 31st of December 2008, the Junks were performing at 22% more than the Federal reserve, part of the reason had to do with the Japanese Yen and the Forex, but much of it had to do with sudden nose dive of crude oil price leading to the end of the year. From the lowest fall in over decade, crude oil prices from the beginning of 2009 has gradually moved up. It is possible that the same scenario is gradually appearing after June 2009, and as we approach the September dead zone for crude oil, attention once more is placed on what is happening to US Treasury, the strenght of the dollars and crude oil.

There were other factors that might have deepened the issue of crude oil decline in June. One of which was that the Chinese and their Indian cohort where backing off from much acquisition of crude, an action which at some point spooked the heavy sale of crude oil. Second problem was the money function of the Euro in terms of crude oil prices. That currency is set in such a way as to inversely conform to the performance of US currency. They call it correlation and in the years leading to American strong dollar policy, the weak dollar forced a strengthening of Euro and a peculation of crude oil price, priced in to Forex and bifurcation. Third to this factor was the tilt of U.S fed reserve towards a quarter of a percent in interest rate, a move no one in the history of the United States has found enough reason to do. The position of US federal reserve in terms of interest rate could have only forced a strengthening of the U.S dollar which sent a lasting chill over the rest of oil dependent countries of the world.

The question has always been what the U.S Treasury had to do with short falls in crude oil? The answer is not that complicated on the condition that nothing in the world can be baited against Crude oil than the very U.S dollar. Until fairly recently, much of the world has bought and traded oil with enough eyes on the US dollars, the movement of US currency only tend to rise and fall given the action of the Feds and the US Treasury but in reality it is the attention on done oil that is by far more important than the Treasury, and that attention can have have its day in deflating the strict attention of US currency. It is not that complicated a process, it is more the outcome of the Forex and the telling weight of the world currencies and international valuation than what is happening inside American market. But of course market prices can check and balance out each other and the whole discipline is the necessity of risk management for Porfolio group.

Crude oil had been climbing for sometime cracking @75 a barrel. It is necessary that the price continue upwards for some profits to be possible. If we take into accounts last year's losses, it is needs to understand the inevitability of an upward trend in Crude and oil prices. With 0.25% percent interest rate, and the spend attitude of US Government, the fear of excess liquidity nestle entirely on the rate of inflation and not its deflationary tact. The end game of these seemless derivative and 'hedge' is that crude oil is baited for the shots on any form of inflation. The target for US policy markers is commodity for sure, and that is only ensured by crippling the upward trend of the major bait for common market; the crude oil. If that can only be a lasting indication of a new form of standard, then it should become clear enough that as the year wears on, attempts by the US Treasury to emphasis a strong dollar is all set to discourage the 'irrational exuberance' June - September of crude oil peculation, and to limit the profitability of rangers who go as back as December/January for shorts.

All is set for a rally on crude oil. Those seeking a 'miserly some' should still go on till September. In essence it is still not late in the game to 'enter the dragon' in crude oil but it is better if the money and size of portfolio is little more than average with useful exist strategy after Q3,09.
The interest of Russia in many parts of the world in terms of oil and gas, the excess capacity of oil around the world waiting to disembark and the very strong dollars means that the oil market will tow a natural lead until next very year. In all likelihood still, the Forex and currency market, can still play itself out in terms of capacity. If the Japanese Yen is Strong as we rap up its earning season in August, it will be looking to empty its excess capacity of the dollars, that will briefly ease off the pressure of banking institution. Trading through the Yang might elevate the export potential of Asia but briefly, the movement of world market strangely false on Asian market.

Market Research for Traders by Iroabuchi Onwuka

By Iroabuchi Onwuka

Market has become rocket science. It is now very difficult to conduct any perform questionaire based on what is going in the market today. The real test of any research is the usefulness of the discovery, and many of these researchhead need their 'reserche material' composed mainly of statistics. In fact most successful Market engines and Engineers, have little patients for the outside world and the world of opinion outside facts and figures. You can't talk to these people without direct quote and references. These research groups are either working for their group or are working for themselves. If for instance, Toyota is a good company, it's simply because of serious market research and questionaire that make up much of their service reps. GM conduct their own research but it is not as strong as a Toyota and GM follow very little of what the customers are saying. In day trading, this is also the case, and given the temperature of online trading, it is seriously useful to stay tuned to your very personal observation and researches. This is the theme of many market analyst and I seriously encourage many companies in US to do the same and not just that many in US and Europe, but companies around the world and Nigerian.



My inspiration to write this essay, begins with what I read recently in a book by David S. Nassar, titled 'Rules of the Trade', published in 2001 by McGraw Hill Companies, Inc. The book is truly full of "indispensable insights for online Profit" with a commanding foreword by William Lupien. What seem very significant to me is the mention of Research and use of Research in day trading. Mr Nasser who has been a very long Trader shared his personal views on the merits of self conduct and personal research. He made references to his personal life and years as a day trader, adding the necessity to "create a writter plan" and to stick with it. Here I intended to quote much of his writing of research and from the book.



P.76

"it is imperative to trade strong stocks that are well suited to your training style. Quality research is the key that opens the door to ensuring that you are always trading stocks that yield the greatest chance for success....using a sound methodolgy is crucial. One approach I suggest is the top - down approach"



Traders like Nasser explain 'top down approach' as the process that involves "taking a macroview of the market and identifying those stocks within major industry group that show signs of strenght and activity." The 'novice' trader like the best of us can use this process to help himself or herself in the market.



Nasser continued that "the top down approach essentially starts at a baseline of the available stocks and uses individually tailored creteria to figure out the vast majority of these securities from consideration." For instance, the Dow, the S & P 100, the S & P 500, or the Nasdaq 100 and so on can used to improve your management portfolio and trade option. David Nasser continued in p.78 that "as a beginning place for searching for tradable stocks. The S & P 500 is often selected because (a) it includes both listed and over the counter stocks and (b) the vast number of securities within the index virtually guarantees that all industry sectors make up our greater economy will be well represented. Despite the continued dominance of the S&P as a starting ground for selecting stocks, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant growth in terms of its importance to traders."

According to Nasser, the NASDAQ 100 has seen significant in start up companies, that it is "now a great place to start finding technology-related stocks that can quickly gather the momentum appealing to short-term traders. As for the Dow, it is unlikely it will provide a significant list of stocks for you to trade; nevertheless, due to its continued importance as the bellwether index and its inclusion of the strongest of the large cap companies, it should still be watched closely as an indicator of overall market health".

"Once you have chosen a major index as a starting ground, analyse which sectors within that index also appeal to your interests (e.g., financials, technology, biotechs, or semiconductor). The Standard & Poor's Web site not only lists each of the stocks within the S&P 500 but also gives a description of each company and the sector and subsector classifications of each
(http://www.spglobal.com/ssindexmain500text.html)."

"Many of you might ask why you need to find sectors that are of particular interest to you, rather than just picking the sector du jour. The reason is passion. If you don't have passion for the industry sector in which the stocks you are about to research reside, then you won't have the desire to actually do the research to the best of your abilities even when you are tired from a full day's work".


"Once you have selected the sectors that appeal to you, re-examine the lists of stocks within that sector. Are these enough stocks within that sector to continue refining your research, orshould you use the sector description to expand the list of stocks within that sector, even if the additional stocks are not within your major index? It is likely that you will have to conduct additional sector research to ffind a full list of stocks within that sector, which you can the continue to narrow down. Several good Web sites provide excellent research about particular groups of stocks that can be used to create a robust list of stocks within each sector, including the following."

Nasser continued with the following example

"http://www.amex.com/ The American Stock Exchange Web Site provide lists of stocks within each of the Select sector S&P Depository Receipts (Select Sector SPDRs) as well as information about the stocks within the various Merrill Lynch & Company Depository Receipts (HOLDRS). These are great sector groupings in which to find stocks within a particular sector.
See http://www.amex.com/structuredeq/holdrs_tth.stm for an example of a listing of securities within an HOLDRS sector."

"www.phlx.com/index.stm The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Website lists the stocks within several sectors, including the closely watched semiconductor sector, thestreet.com Internet sector, and the wireless telecom sector. The S&P Global Website provides a lsiting of the stocks in the S&P index and their sectors. if you have chosen a large sector such as technology, you may need to further narrow your choices to telecom, chiapmakers, box makers, or some other subsector of technology."